# Are Polls Undercounting Republicans Again Ahead of Midterms?

- URL: https://twotakes.us/stories/are-polls-undercounting-republicans-again-ahead-of-midterms
- Published: 2026-11-02T08:06:03.139111+00:00
- Topics: polling, midterm-elections, 2026-elections, media-bias, voter-behavior

## What the left says
- Pollsters themselves are transparently flagging the response gap rather than hiding it, with pollsters like the Washington Post disclosing their methodology and the specific partisan enthusiasm gap they observed.
- A widening non-response gap may reflect genuine Republican demoralization over issues like inflation and an unpopular president rather than a hidden wave of unmeasured GOP support.
- Polling misses have not been consistently one-directional, with 2018 and 2022 midterms showing no systematic overestimation of Democratic support, suggesting 2016/2020/2024 presidential-year errors may not translate to midterms.
- Pollsters are actively adjusting methods, including massive outreach efforts of tens of thousands of calls and texts, to try to correct for known biases and should be credited for adapting rather than dismissed outright.

## What the right says
- Trump voters have a documented pattern of distrust toward pollsters and media institutions, leading many to refuse participation because they believe surveys are designed against them.
- Democrats are responding to polls at roughly double or more the rate of Republicans, a gap experts call a 'supersize version' of a long-standing and still unsolved problem.
- Polls have underestimated Republican and Trump support in every recent presidential election by three to five points, raising legitimate doubts about whether current midterm polls are similarly skewed.
- Even pollsters at outlets like the Washington Post are now publicly admitting their efforts to correct for the GOP response gap may have fallen short, lending credibility to skepticism rather than dismissing it as partisan spin.

## Common ground
- Republican respondents are completing surveys at significantly lower rates than Democratic respondents in current cycle polling.
- Pollsters have made extensive efforts, including tens of thousands of calls and texts, to reach a representative sample of voters.
- Polling has shown a track record of underestimating Republican and Trump support in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections.
- Accurately predicting voter turnout remains an inherently difficult challenge for pollsters regardless of methodology improvements.

## Sources
- [AllSides](https://www.allsides.com/news/2026-11-01-0800/2026-midterm-elections-are-trump-voters-refusing-take-polls-and-other-polling-risks) (Center)
- [AllSides](https://www.allsides.com/news/2026-11-01-0800/2026-midterm-elections-2026-midterms-will-be-uniquely-difficult-polls) (Center)
- [AllSides](https://www.allsides.com/news/2026-11-01-0800/2026-midterm-elections-even-wapo-forced-admit-theres-big-problem-election-polling) (Center)
- [Blaze Media](https://www.theblaze.com/news/wapo-poll-problems-election-day) (Right)

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