Diesel fuel nozzle filling a car's tank as prices hit record highs.Diesel Hits Record $6.40 as Trump Calls Price 'Inexpensive'
Intra-Party Split Detected
Trump administration officials (Wright, Bessent, Trump) insist high fuel prices are temporary and worth the cost of confronting Iran, while some right-leaning outlets (Blaze Media) highlight analyst skepticism, JPMorgan's inability to forecast an endgame, and note that redlines like $5 gas and $100 oil have been crossed without the promised deal, implicitly questioning the administration's optimistic framing.
Left says
- •Record diesel prices are already rippling through the economy, with Brown University estimating higher diesel costs have cost U.S. consumers more than $46 billion since the war began.
- •Major food and consumer goods companies including Kroger, Smithfield, Hormel, and Newell Brands report that rising fuel and transportation costs are squeezing margins and will likely be passed on to consumers.
- •The Department of Energy itself sharply raised its 2027 diesel price forecast, undercutting the administration's messaging that relief is imminent.
- •Dismissing a record $6.40 diesel price as 'inexpensive' feels out of touch to households and businesses already straining under inflation, especially with California diesel poised to top $8 a gallon.
Right says
- •President Trump frames the elevated fuel prices as a necessary and ultimately small trade-off for preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
- •Administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, argue the price spike is temporary and predict a sharp drop once the Iran conflict concludes, with oil potentially falling to $40 a barrel.
- •The price increases stem from real, war-driven supply disruptions, including reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and drone damage to a major Saudi pipeline, not from domestic policy failures.
- •Gasoline prices had been falling for weeks before ticking up slightly, and the current national average remains below the 2022 record set under the Biden administration.
Common Take
High Consensus- Diesel prices have hit record highs, driven largely by disruptions from the Iran war and reduced shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Higher fuel costs are flowing into broader inflation, affecting food, transportation, and consumer goods prices nationwide.
- Administration officials and independent analysts both acknowledge significant uncertainty remains over how and when the conflict, and its impact on fuel prices, will end.
- Rising energy costs carry political risk for Republicans heading into the November midterm elections.
The Arguments
Left argues
Record diesel prices are already causing measurable economic harm, with Brown University estimating $46 billion in added costs since the war began and major companies like Kroger, Smithfield, and Newell Brands confirming they are passing costs to consumers, so calling $6.40 'inexpensive' minimizes real, ongoing pain.
Right counters
The administration isn't denying prices are high—it's arguing the trade-off is justified given the alternative of a nuclear-armed Iran, and officials like Bessent and Wright are consistently framing this as a temporary cost, not a permanent dismissal of the burden.
Right argues
The price spikes stem from verifiable supply shocks—collapsed Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic (from 125 vessels a day to as few as four) and drone damage to a major Saudi pipeline—meaning this is a war-driven disruption rather than a domestic policy failure.
Left counters
Even if the proximate cause is the war, the war itself is a policy choice by the administration, and the Energy Department's own upward revision of its 2027 diesel forecast suggests officials no longer expect this to be a brief shock, undercutting the 'temporary disruption' framing.
Right argues
Gasoline prices had fallen nearly 60 cents over the prior month and remain below the 2022 record set under Biden, suggesting the broader fuel picture is more stable than the diesel headline implies and that panic is premature.
Left counters
Diesel, not gasoline, is the fuel that drives freight, farming, and manufacturing costs throughout the supply chain, so pointing to gasoline trends doesn't address the specific inflationary shock rippling through groceries and consumer goods right now.
Left argues
Trump's 'inexpensive' framing is politically risky and out of touch when California diesel is poised to exceed $8 a gallon and everyday households are absorbing costs at the pump and in grocery bills, regardless of the geopolitical justification.
Right counters
Trump explicitly framed the cost as relatively small compared to preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon—a national security trade-off voters can weigh for themselves—not a claim that $6.40 is cheap in absolute terms.
Right argues
Administration officials predict prices will fall sharply once the conflict resolves, with Bessent forecasting oil could drop to $40 a barrel amid an oversupplied market, suggesting current pain is a temporary bridge rather than a permanent condition.
Left counters
J.P. Morgan's own commodities analysts have publicly abandoned trying to forecast an endgame, saying they have no baseline view of the war's resolution, which makes confident predictions of a quick price collapse look more like political messaging than credible economic forecasting.
Challenge Questions
These questions target genuine internal contradictions — meant to provoke honest reflection.
Right asks Left
“If the war is acknowledged as the primary driver of diesel prices via Hormuz disruptions and pipeline attacks, how should responsibility be apportioned between wartime supply shocks and domestic policy, and does citing corporate earnings calls as evidence of consumer harm also require acknowledging that those same companies operate in a global market shaped by forces beyond any single administration's control?”
Left asks Right
“If officials are confidently predicting oil could fall to $40 a barrel once the war ends, how does that certainty square with J.P. Morgan's admission that even sophisticated market analysts have no baseline model for how or when the conflict resolves?”
Outlier Report
Left Fringe
Progressive commentators like Robert Reich or accounts on X pushing narratives that Trump 'started an oil war for profit' represent a fringe view blaming the administration for deliberately engineering the crisis for personal/political gain; roughly 10-15% of the left.
Right Fringe
Figures like Charlie Kirk or MAGA-aligned commentators who argue high diesel prices are a worthwhile, almost inconsequential cost and that complaints are media-driven hysteria represent a more extreme dismissiveness than most Republicans, who still worry about pocketbook impacts; roughly 15-20% of the right.
Noise Assessment
High — much of the fiercest online reaction (e.g., viral clips of Trump's 'inexpensive' quote) is amplified by partisan accounts for engagement, while polling on gas prices tends to show broader, less polarized economic anxiety across the political spectrum than social media suggests.
Sources (6)
U.S. diesel prices reached a record on Monday as the war in Iran continues to disrupt global fuel supplies.
<img src="https://www.theblaze.com/media-library/analysts-give-up-on-predicting-gas-prices.png?id=67793458&width=1245&height=700&coordinates=0%2C0%2C0%2C0" /><br /><br /><p>As the war with Iran drags on into its seventh month, uncertainties over oil prices have even stymied the experts charged with predicting futures. This week, J.P. Morgan officially abandoned any attempts to anticipate the outcome, claiming that analysts don’t know how to model the end of the war fueling the chaotic gas price surge.</p><p>This stunning admission came down from the head of global commodities research at J.P. Morgan, Natasha Kaneva. According to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/17/jpmorgan-gives-up-forecasting-iran-wars-end-as-trump-blows-past-economic-redlines-.html">CNBC</a>, she released a client note Thursday stating, “For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don't have a baseline view” of the oil market.</p><p class="pull-quote">’This will be a brief and temporary interruption.’</p><p> Kaneva followed that with, "We simply don't know how to model the endgame."</p><p>These fears are largely exacerbated by the continued struggle over the Strait of Hormuz. Despite President Donald Trump’s insistence that the United States “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mT8jqoVbADY" target="_blank">powerfully</a>" controls the strait, Iran claims the opposite, saying that the <a href="https://wanaen.com/strait-of-hormuz-will-remain-closed-until-trump-and-netanyahu-are-removed-from-power/">vital shipping path is closed</a> until Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are removed from power.</p><p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hormuz-traffic-dwindles-after-middle-east-attacks-intensify-2026-09-15/">According to Reuters</a>, some commercial vessels are still permitted to pass, though the daily number has dropped dramatically from 125 vessels per day before the war to just four to 10 per day this past week. With oil tankers unable to move through as freely as before, oil supplies dwindle, and prices go up.</p><p><strong>RELATED: </strong><strong><a href="https://www.theblaze.com/columns/opinion/clean-energy-isn-t-telling-the-whole-story" target="_blank">'Clean energy' isn't telling the whole story</a></strong></p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image image-crop-16x9"> <img alt="" class="rm-shortcode" id="1dd52" src="https://www.theblaze.com/media-library/image.jpg?id=67793771&width=1245&height=700&quality=50&coordinates=0%2C53%2C0%2C54" /> <small class="image-media media-photo-credit">Florian Gaertner/Photothek/Getty Images</small></p><p>Until recently, analysts remained hopeful that three approaching redlines would force Trump to make a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by June. These included:</p><ul><li>oil prices exceeding $100 a barrel;</li><li>the 10-year Treasury climbing to 5%; and</li><li>the gasoline national average reaching $5.</li></ul><p>The first two redlines were already crossed, with the third teetering on the edge as the national gas price average <a href="https://gasprices.aaa.com">creeps up to $4.47 and counting</a>, according to AAA. Halfway through September, there’s still no deal in sight, and analysts have all but given up on trying to predict the outcome.</p><p>Adding insult to injury, the East-West Crude Oil Pipeline in Saudi Arabia was <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/three-pumping-stations-along-saudi-east-west-pipeline-were-hit-recent-attack-2026-09-17/">struck by an Iraqi drone</a> on September 11, further contributing to oil disruptions and growing gas prices. Yet despite mounting uncertainty, the Trump administration insists that the situation is under control.</p><p>"This will be a brief and temporary interruption," Energy Secretary Chris Wright <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/09/15/saud-arabia-east-west-pipeline-iran-war-chris-wright.html">said after the incident</a>. “It will be measured in days.”</p><p>The Associated Press reports that <a href="https://apnews.com/article/yemen-houthis-saudi-shipping-mandeb-8c18d82c109a8ea91347ce53c0096c53">full restoration could take weeks</a>. All of that remains to be seen.</p><p>For now, gas prices continue to rise across the nation, with the West Coast already exceeding $5 per gallon, while California nears $6 per gallon. The midterm elections also loom on the horizon.</p><p>Wright <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/video/6405156723112" target="_blank">pledged</a> on Wednesday that "diesel prices, gasoline prices, all of them will be coming back down."</p><p><em>Editor's note: This article has been corrected after publication to note that the redline is the 10-year Treasury climbing to 5%, not 10%.</em></p><p><em>Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. <a href="https://www.theblaze.com/newsletters/theblaze-articlelink">Sign up here</a>!</em></p>
The national average price for diesel hit a record $6.40 per gallon Thursday, up nearly 73% from last year. AAA data showed diesel averaging $6.3956, up from $3.7075 one year earlier. It was the highest national average the organization has recorded. At a campaign rally in North Carolina on Wednesday, President Donald Trump described the ...
<p>The national average price of a gallon of <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/09/09/energy-department-hikes-2027-diesel-price-outlook" target="_blank">diesel</a> jumped over $6 for the first time ever, AAA said on Friday.</p><p><strong>Why it matters: </strong>The fuel that runs the economy is getting more expensive by the day, costing businesses and consumers alike billions of dollars. </p><hr /><ul><li>While the $6 threshold is more psychological than anything else, it points to months of continued pain for drivers, shippers and shoppers. </li></ul><div>Data: AAA; Chart: Ben Geman/Axios</div><p><strong>Driving the news: </strong>At $6.0556<strong> </strong>a gallon, diesel is about 14% more expensive than it was a month ago and over 60% more than a year ago. </p><ul><li>That is starting to show up in other prices, as has long been feared; inflation data out Thursday showed <a href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro" target="_blank">sharp spikes</a> in transportation and warehousing costs, for example. </li></ul><p><strong>Stunning stat: </strong>Brown University <a href="https://iranwarcost.watson.brown.edu/" target="_blank">estimates</a> higher diesel prices have cost U.S. consumers more than $46 billion since the war began.</p><ul><li>About 20% of that is in Texas and California alone. </li></ul><p><strong>The intrigue: </strong>The White House's position is that fuel prices will come down after the midterms as the war with Iran winds down and oil supplies improve.</p><ul><li>But the Department of Energy sharply raised its 2027 diesel price forecast this week, acknowledging a painful higher-for-longer scenario.</li></ul><p><strong>The bottom line: </strong>With diesel at $6, inflation looks like it's here to stay for a while. </p><p><em>Ben Geman contributed reporting. </em></p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/09/11/diesel-6-dollars" target="_blank">record price of diesel</a> threatens to stoke inflation at a time when consumers are already price-sensitive and businesses are reeling from higher costs due to trade tensions. </p><p><strong>Why it matters: </strong>Diesel is a key cost throughout the supply chain, meaning soaring prices could eventually show up in what consumers pay for everything from groceries to household goods.</p><hr /><p><strong>Driving the news: </strong>The national average price of a gallon of <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/09/09/energy-department-hikes-2027-diesel-price-outlook" target="_self">diesel</a> topped $6 for the first time ever, AAA said Friday, Axios' Ben Berkowitz <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/09/11/diesel-6-dollars" target="_blank">reports</a>.</p><ul><li>That's up 60% from a year earlier.</li></ul><p><strong>Between the lines: </strong>Food prices could be among the first places consumers feel the ripple effects, executives said this week.</p><ul><li>At grocery chain Kroger, which has been trying to keep a lid on prices: "I would expect that the pressure is actually going to mount," CEO Greg Foran said Friday on an earnings call.</li><li>At pork producer Smithfield Foods: "That impact is beginning to flow through in the second half of the year," CFO Mark Hall said Thursday.</li><li>At Hormel Foods: "With the Iran war and the spike in diesel costs, that's been something we've had to confront," interim CEO Jeffrey Ettinger said Wednesday.</li></ul><p><strong>But the effects</strong> extend well beyond food.</p><ul><li>For example, at Newell Brands — whose portfolio includes Rubbermaid, Sharpie and Coleman — the inflationary impacts of energy costs have far exceeded the company's initial estimates.</li><li>"It's either resin, which is obviously dependent on the price of oil, or it is direct transportation costs, i.e., diesel," CFO Mark Erceg said Tuesday.</li></ul><p><strong>The big picture: </strong>Energy prices have spiked since President Trump launched the war with Iran, which prompted the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane.</p><ul><li>The latest Energy Information Administration <a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf" target="_blank">outlook</a> expects retail diesel to average $4.40 a gallon in 2027, up 33 cents, or 8.2%, from its previous forecast of $4.07, Axios' Rebecca Falconer and Ben Geman <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/09/09/energy-department-hikes-2027-diesel-price-outlook" target="_blank">reported</a>.</li><li>The average price of unleaded gasoline has also spiked, rising by $1.11 over the last year to $4.30 per gallon as of Friday, <a href="https://gasprices.aaa.com/" target="_blank">according to AAA</a>.</li></ul><p><strong>By the numbers:</strong> 47 of the 50 states have experienced an increase in average diesel prices of more than $2 per gallon over the last year, <a href="https://x.com/GasBuddyGuy" target="_blank">according to GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan</a>.</p><ul><li>The economy is facing an extra $300 million in diesel costs every 24 hours.</li><li>California is poised to become the first state with average diesel prices above $8 — with many stations already above $9, according to GasBuddy.</li></ul><p><strong>The bottom line: </strong>Record diesel prices are turning the energy shock into a broader cost shock for businesses and consumers.</p>
The national average price for a gallon of regular gas has dropped nearly 60 cents over the last month, reaching $3.928 per gallon on Wednesday, according to AAA. The price drop at the pumps is a culmination of four straight weeks of falling fuel costs. However, while gas prices have fallen by 60 cents per […]