James Talarico speaking at a podium, split with Ken Paxton, Texas Senate rivals.Even Democrats Doubt Talarico Can Flip Texas Blue
Intra-Party Split Detected
Rep. Jasmine Crockett, Talarico's former primary rival, publicly casts doubt on his chances and criticizes the lack of DSCC/national Democratic investment in the race, breaking from the party's optimistic framing of Talarico as a strong contender to flip the Texas Senate seat.
Left says
- •Talarico has led in three consecutive polls, including one showing him up 51-48, and outraised Paxton nearly 3-to-1 last quarter with $30 million to Paxton's $9 million.
- •Paxton is underperforming historical GOP margins with white and Latino voters, signs of a genuine opening even in a red state.
- •Jasmine Crockett's skepticism reflects caution born from past disappointments in Texas, not a rejection of Talarico's candidacy, and she has already endorsed him.
- •National Democratic committees may simply be waiting to see sustained momentum before committing resources, a strategic calculation rather than a lack of faith.
Right says
- •A sitting Democratic congresswoman who ran against Talarico in the primary publicly says she doesn't trust the polls and isn't convinced he can win, undercutting Democratic enthusiasm from within the party.
- •Neither the NRSC nor the DSCC has committed major money to the Texas race, which Crockett says signals both parties' internal data see it as more status quo than competitive.
- •Paxton has won statewide races three times despite well-known controversies, and his campaign insists momentum and donor support are accelerating, not fading.
- •Talarico's own past statements on gender, climate, and social issues are viewed as politically vulnerable once more Texans become familiar with his record.
Common Take
High Consensus- Three recent public polls show Talarico with a narrow, within-margin-of-error lead over Paxton.
- Talarico has significantly outraised Paxton in recent fundraising quarters.
- Neither the NRSC nor the DSCC has yet made major financial commitments to the Texas Senate race.
- No Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas in more than three decades, making a potential Talarico win historically significant either way.
The Arguments
Left argues
Three consecutive independent polls showing Talarico ahead or tied, combined with a nearly 3-to-1 fundraising advantage ($30M to $9M), reflect a genuine and measurable erosion of Paxton's support, not statistical noise.
Right counters
Paxton has won three statewide races despite well-documented scandals, and Crockett's own point stands: neither the NRSC nor DSCC has moved real money into Texas, suggesting both parties' internal data see this as far less competitive than public polling implies.
Right argues
A sitting Democratic congresswoman from Texas — Talarico's own primary opponent — publicly says she doesn't trust the polls and won't commit until she sees Republican money flow into the race, which is a far more credible signal of internal Democratic doubt than an endorsement made out of party obligation.
Left counters
Crockett's skepticism is rooted in Texas Democrats' history of premature hype, not a specific critique of Talarico, and she has already endorsed him; her caution about timing her ground game for September/October is standard campaign strategy, not a repudiation.
Right argues
Talarico's own recorded statements on gender, climate, and border security give Paxton's campaign a clear opening to define him before undecided voters lock in, and Paxton insists this line of attack — not fundraising parity — will decide the race.
Left counters
If those attacks were as potent as claimed, they should already be depressing Talarico's numbers, yet he's leading or tied in three straight polls even as Paxton's campaign has had months to deploy exactly this messaging.
Left argues
Paxton's underperformance with white voters (winning them by only 14 points versus Trump's 33-point margin) and with Latino voters signals a structural weakening of the traditional GOP coalition in Texas, not just a fundraising gap.
Right counters
One demographic crosstab from a single poll is a thin reed compared to the DSCC's own decision not to invest — if national Democratic operatives with full access to internal data don't see a winnable race, that's a stronger indicator than crosstabs from an outside pollster.
Right argues
Neither national party committee has committed serious resources to Texas, and Republicans are instead spending in North Carolina and Georgia — a market-based signal that professional strategists on both sides view Texas as further from a toss-up than the polling suggests.
Left counters
The lack of national spending could equally reflect a wait-and-see strategy given the sting of past Texas disappointments (Beto O'Rourke, etc.), not a verdict on Talarico's actual chances, and Talarico's own $30 million war chest reduces his reliance on national committee money in the first place.
Challenge Questions
These questions target genuine internal contradictions — meant to provoke honest reflection.
Right asks Left
“If Talarico's polling lead and fundraising advantage are genuine signs of a competitive race, why haven't the DSCC or major Democratic donors—who have every incentive to flip a Senate seat—moved significant money into Texas the way they have in other contested states?”
Left asks Right
“If Paxton's scandals and vulnerabilities are as politically survivable as his campaign claims based on his past three statewide wins, why is his campaign now pivoting to talk about affordability and the economy instead of running on the culture-war issues it says will sink Talarico?”
Outlier Report
Left Fringe
Enthusiastic Talarico boosters and some progressive commentators (roughly 15-20% of the left) treat the polling as near-certain evidence of a historic flip, dismissing money and institutional caution as irrelevant.
Right Fringe
Some MAGA-aligned commentators and Paxton allies (roughly 15% of the right) dismiss the polling entirely as fake or manipulated rather than engaging with the demographic erosion data, framing any Democratic competitiveness in Texas as impossible.
Noise Assessment
High — much of the coverage amplifies a single Crockett soundbite into a referendum on the whole race, and both sides cherry-pick either polling numbers or fundraising/spending signals to fit preexisting narratives about Texas's political trajectory.
Sources (12)
<p>Three consecutive polls have now shown Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in that state's <a href="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/05/28/talarico-paxton-senate-race-texas" target="_blank">crucial race</a> for the U.S. Senate. The latest, released Tuesday morning, has Talarico up 47%-45%.</p><p><strong>Why it matters:</strong> That's within the survey's margin of error, and the Republican establishment isn't panicking — not yet, anyway. </p><hr /><ul><li>But there are some troubling signs for the GOP nominee among white and Latino voters.</li></ul><p><strong>State of play: </strong>The private theory among top Republican officials has long been that Paxton, <a href="https://www.axios.com/local/houston/2025/07/10/ken-paxton-angela-divorce-texas-attorney-general" target="_blank">while scandal-plagued</a>, doesn't have the kind of problems that money shouldn't be able to solve. The plan is to drive up Talarico's negatives with Texas-sized ad buys and wait for GOP voters to come home. </p><ul><li>But the cavalry of outside money still hasn't arrived for Paxton, as Talarico's team continues pump out ads calling Paxton "the <a href="https://www.fox7austin.com/election/talarico-paxton-reaction-corrupt-runoff" target="_blank">most corrupt politician</a> in America."</li><li>And while Paxton raised $9 million last quarter, many <a href="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/07/16/cornyn-paxton-talarico-fundraising-texas-senate" target="_blank">big-dollar donors</a> for Sen. John Cornyn — whom Paxton beat in the GOP primary — aren't opening their wallets. Talarico, meanwhile, pulled in $30 million as he tries to become the first Democrat in more than three decades to win a statewide election in Texas.</li></ul><p><strong>Before the <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6a713767d4ed824b91ea090d/1785804647961/Texas%2BStatewide%2BAugust2026.pdf" target="_blank">latest survey</a> </strong>of 1,200 likely voters by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, a <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-gop-divisions-shape-texas-senate-race" target="_blank">Fox News poll</a> had Talarico up 51-48. <a href="https://texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com/p/new-poll-james-talaricos-lead-over" target="_blank">A Texas Public Opinion Research</a> survey found Talarico up 45-40.</p><ul><li>"The only poll that matters is November 3," said Nick Maddux, a Paxton adviser. </li><li>"Talarico's campaign will end up exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas — a pipe dream."</li></ul><p><strong>Zoom in:</strong> Demographically, though, Paxton appears to be suffering a one-two blow, according to the Texas Southern survey. </p><ul><li>He's underperforming badly with white voters (60% of the modeled midterm electorate) and Latino voters (21% of the electorate).</li><li>Paxton is winning white voters by just 14 points, the survey found, low for a Texas Republican. President Trump won them by 33 in Texas two years ago, according to exit polls.</li><li>Trump also carried Hispanic voters by 10 points. Talarico is winning them by 19, Texas Southern found.</li></ul><p><strong>Zoom out:</strong> The GOP political establishment's worst nightmare came true in Texas' Republican primary, when Cornyn lost a <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/06/17/texas-senate-race-polling-cornyn-paxton" target="_blank">civil war</a> to Paxton.</p><ul><li>The GOP spent more than $60 million on Cornyn's campaign, with much of that money focused on negative ads targeting Paxton.</li></ul><p><strong>The intrigue:</strong> Trump endorsed Paxton at the last minute, when it was clear he'd prevail.</p><ul><li>But Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and his political team made it clear that it would be up to Trump's team to drag Paxton across the finish line in the November election.</li><li>"Republicans may keep Texas, but you broke it, you buy it. MAGA Inc. just became Texas Inc.," a <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/05/19/republican-senate-trump-cornyn-cassidy-tillis" target="_blank">Thune ally told Axios</a>.</li></ul><p><strong>Reality check:</strong> Paxton has won statewide elections three times. His character issues — from various <a href="https://www.thebarbedwire.com/ken-paxton-scandal-timeline/" target="_blank">corruption charges</a> to a messy divorce — are well known to Texas voters. They've continued to put him in office anyway.</p><p><em>Editor's note: The poll surveyed 1,200 Texans who are likely to cast a ballot in the November 2026 general election in Texas with a margin of error of +/- 2.83 points). The survey (in English and Spanish) was fielded between July 27 and July 30, 2026, by contacting registered voters via SMS text messages through which the respondents were directed to an online survey platform. </em></p>
<img src="https://www.theblaze.com/media-library/jasmine-crockett-dumps-on-james-talarico-s-chances-of-winning-us-senate-seat-in-texas-and-brings-the-receipts.jpg?id=67579129&width=1245&height=700&coordinates=0%2C17%2C0%2C18" /><br /><br /><p>Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Texas gave a scathing assessment of James Talarico's chances of flipping one of the state's seats in the U.S. Senate.</p><p>The outspoken and often vulgar congresswoman pointed to evidence that the Democratic Party was not placing much faith in its candidate to win the seat.</p><p class="pull-quote">'I look at where does the NRSC stand? Where does DSCC stand? ... It looks like status quo.'</p><p>Crockett <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/live-blog/trump-michigan-el-sayed-2026-election-congress-iran-live-updates-rcna590889/rcrd118342?canonicalCard=true" target="_blank">told NBC News</a> she did not trust polling for the general election because it had historically overstated Democrats' advantage.</p><p>"I watch money. When I look at the money, if Republicans start spending money in Texas, then I'll be convinced," she said.</p><p>"But right now, national Republicans decided they wanted to dump money into North Carolina, as well as Georgia," she added. "That's where they're fighting, and national Democrats have not decided to dump money into Texas either."</p><p>A report from the New York Times on the financial backing in the race <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/29/us/politics/texas-senate-paxton-fund-raising.html" target="_blank">supports</a> Crockett's assessments, especially when it comes to Republicans spreading money to other Senate races believed to be not as competitive and costly as that in Texas.</p><p>"I look at where does the NRSC stand? Where does DSCC stand? Right now, neither one are investing, which tells me that their internals are saying the same thing," she continued. "So it looks like status quo. I won't get on the ground to really start to feel it until maybe end of September, October, as I start to dig into which races I'm going to help out in, the races that I really feel like we can win."</p><p>The Times report said national Democrats were less willing to dump millions into Texas to back Talarico after seeing that a cash advantage didn't help past candidates in the red state.</p><p>Talarico is also faring far better than Paxton in raising millions of donations by himself.</p><p>National Republican Senatorial Committee Communications Director Joanna Rodriguez released a statement to Blaze News about Crockett's comments.</p><p>"The fall of coordinated spending limits means the NRSC can discuss spending decisions directly with our candidates and their campaigns," Rodriguez said. "The era of raising the curtain on strategy for press and the Democrats we're looking to defeat is over."</p><p>Flipping Texas would be incredibly helpful for Democrats' hopes to retake the Senate in the midterm elections.</p><p><strong>RELATED: </strong><a href="https://www.theblaze.com/news/mike-lee-talarico-paxton-polling" target="_blank"><strong>Mike Lee SOUNDS the ALARM after stunning polls from Senate race in Texas</strong></a></p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-youtube"> <span class="rm-shortcode" style="display: block; padding-top: 56.25%;"></span> </p><p>A Blaze News request for comment to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee was not immediately answered.</p><p>The Paxton campaign also disputed the financial characterization of the race by the Times.</p><p>"The trajectory is unmistakable: Support is accelerating, not softening. Everyone from grassroots Texans to large conservative donors are consolidating behind this campaign, and June was the clearest signal yet," campaign adviser Nick Maddux said.</p><p>He also noted that the campaign had raised $7 million across several Paxton committees.</p><em>Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. </em><em><a href="https://www.theblaze.com/newsletters/theblaze-articlelink" target="_self">Sign up here</a></em><em>!</em>
Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) on Tuesday poured more cold water on Democratic primary rival James Talarico’s campaign, raising fresh doubts about whether he can win November’s closely watched Senate race. In an interview with NBC News, Crockett said she isn’t buying the flurry of polls showing Talarico within striking distance of — or even leading ...
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