A gas station attendant at a fuel pump with prices displayed in New York City.Gas Prices Surge Again as Trump's Iran War Escalates Before Midterms
Left says
- •Trump owns this war and its economic fallout, since unlike other inflation drivers there's no other global factor to deflect blame onto, and polling shows most Americans hold him responsible for the pump shock.
- •Nearly eight in ten Americans say gas prices are straining their household budgets, showing the real-world pain being caused by an escalating conflict Trump chose to reignite.
- •Trump's repeated promises that prices will 'drop like a rock' once the war ends ring hollow given the war shows no sign of ending, and Iran's refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz proves he can't simply dictate outcomes.
- •Republicans have little else to offer struggling voters on affordability, with Trump instead focusing on unproven voter fraud claims rather than addressing the inflation voters are actually feeling.
Right says
- •Oil markets have shown remarkable resilience throughout this conflict, with prices peaking far below the doomsday $150-200 predictions analysts made when the war began.
- •Trump's naval blockade and tough rhetoric aim to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for global commerce while specifically targeting Iran's ability to profit from it, distinguishing legitimate shipping from Iranian exports.
- •The administration frames the strait as open and functioning despite Iranian claims to the contrary, with U.S. Central Command asserting the waterway remains available to lawful traffic.
- •Global stockpile releases, alternative pipeline construction, and market adaptability are cushioning the blow, suggesting the economic damage is being managed rather than spiraling out of control.
Common Take
High Consensus- Gas prices have crossed back above $4 per gallon nationally as fighting between the U.S. and Iran has escalated.
- The Strait of Hormuz remains central to global oil markets and disruptions there directly affect gasoline prices for American consumers.
- Oil prices have proven more resilient than initial worst-case forecasts predicted, though they remain elevated and volatile.
- The conflict's trajectory over the coming months will significantly shape both the economic and political landscape heading into the midterms.
The Arguments
Left argues
Trump uniquely owns this economic pain because he chose to reignite the war and has no other global factor to deflect blame onto, and polling confirms most Americans hold him responsible for the pump shock.
Right counters
Responsibility for starting a conflict doesn't equal responsibility for every market fluctuation during it, especially when oil prices have stayed far below the $150-200 doomsday predictions analysts made, showing effective crisis management rather than reckless escalation.
Right argues
The administration's naval blockade and Strait of Hormuz policy specifically target Iran's ability to profit from shipping while keeping the waterway open for legitimate global commerce, a targeted strategy rather than indiscriminate economic disruption.
Left counters
Vessel tracking data from firms like Kpler show a steep decline in ships actually transiting the strait despite Trump's claims it remains open, meaning the policy's real-world effect on markets and consumers looks very different from the administration's rhetoric.
Left argues
Nearly eight in ten Americans say gas prices are straining their household budgets, and Trump's own promise that prices will 'drop like a rock' once the war ends looks increasingly hollow as the conflict shows no sign of resolution.
Right counters
Global stockpile releases, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, alternative pipeline construction already underway in the UAE and Iraq, and reduced Chinese demand have repeatedly proven markets more adaptable than predicted, suggesting the damage is being actively cushioned rather than spiraling unchecked.
Right argues
Oil prices peaked around $126 rather than the predicted $150-200, and even briefly fell back to pre-war levels of $70 in July, demonstrating the crisis has been far less severe than doomsayers forecast.
Left counters
Those temporary dips don't erase the lived reality that gas has again crossed the politically symbolic $4 mark, is up 86 cents year-over-year, and two-thirds of households report financial hardship from these swings regardless of where prices sit on an analyst's chart.
Left argues
With Iran refusing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and escalation continuing, Trump has shown he cannot simply dictate outcomes the way his rhetoric suggests, undermining his credibility on both the war and the economy heading into the midterms.
Right counters
U.S. Central Command maintains the strait remains open to lawful traffic and the blockade is precisely targeted at Iranian shipping, not global commerce, meaning the administration is drawing a legitimate distinction between military pressure on Iran and broader market access that critics conflate for political effect.
Challenge Questions
These questions target genuine internal contradictions — meant to provoke honest reflection.
Right asks Left
“If Americans historically don't punish presidents for broad economic conditions but do react sharply to visible gas prices, is the left's argument really about Trump's culpability for the war itself, or is it leaning on a psychological pricing effect that would apply to any president regardless of the merits of the policy?”
Left asks Right
“If the strait is genuinely 'open' as the administration insists, how does the right explain the documented steep decline in actual tanker traffic and the need for countries to urgently build bypass pipelines, and doesn't that gap between rhetoric and shipping data undermine claims that the situation is being successfully managed?”
Outlier Report
Left Fringe
Progressive commentators like those aligned with The Young Turks or Robert Reich might push further, framing this as evidence Trump deliberately started a war for political/oil-industry gain; this represents maybe 10-15% of the left holding this more conspiratorial framing versus the mainstream 'Trump owns the consequences' view.
Right Fringe
MAGA-aligned figures like Charlie Kirk or some Truth Social loyalists may fully deny any economic damage, echoing Trump's 'strait is open' claims uncritically and dismissing gas price data as media manipulation; this represents roughly 15-20% of the right, with most Republicans acknowledging prices are up but attributing it to Iran's aggression rather than Trump's decisions.
Noise Assessment
Moderate-to-high; partisan media and political figures on both sides amplify their preferred framing (economic doom vs. market resilience) far more than average voters, who mostly just experience higher prices at the pump and adjust approval accordingly without deep engagement in the geopolitical framing debate.
Sources (9)
As the United States and Israel went to war with Iran at the end of February, analysts predicted the price of crude oil could hit $150 a barrel or even rise as far as $200, with the fifth of global supply that transits the vital Strait of Hormuz suddenly cut off from world markets. But, Brent crude futures peaked around $126 - comfortably below 2008's all-time high of $147 - and averaged just $101 a barrel between the start of the conflict on February 28 and June 11 when U.S. President Donald Trump called off strikes on Iran, before briefly retreating to pre-war levels of $70 in early July.
<p>Drivers can expect <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/03/31/us-gas-price-iran-war" target="_blank">pump shock déjà vu</a> as the national average gas price again climbed over $4 per gallon today, as President <a href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/donald-trump" target="_blank">Trump</a> <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/15/trump-situation-room-iran-bombing" target="_blank">appears</a> poised to escalate the war in Iran.</p><p><strong>The big picture: </strong>Tanker traffic is <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/13/oil-trump-us-iran-blockade-strait-hormuz" target="_blank">once again</a> being <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/16/business/strait-hormuz-iran-war-oil.html" target="_blank">choked</a> in the Strait of Hormuz after fighting between Iran and the U.S. reignited, with Washington <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/13/trump-iran-blockade-strait-hormuz" target="_blank">reinstating a naval blockade</a> that could dramatically escalate tensions.</p><hr /><ul><li>Oil prices <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/13/oil-trump-us-iran-blockade-strait-hormuz" target="_blank">have risen</a> as the conflict has escalated and the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/10/trump-iran-talks-ceasefire-over" target="_blank">unravels</a>.</li></ul><p><strong>Driving the news: </strong>The national average is now $4.00 a gallon, per AAA.</p><p><strong>Catch up quick:</strong> Last month, prices slipped back below $4 per gallon, giving some relief following months of pain at the pump. </p><ul><li>As a result, Americans <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/06/26/gas-prices-consumer-confidence" target="_blank">reported feeling better</a> about the economy. Majorities of Americans in multiple <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/americans-blame-trump-gas-price-surge-midterm-election-year-reutersipsos-poll-2026-04-24/" target="_blank">polls</a> had <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/6-in-10-americans-disapprove-of-how-trump-is-handling-iran-new-poll-finds" target="_blank">blamed</a> <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3956" target="_blank">Trump</a> to some extent for the pump shock. </li><li>While the current average per gallon is below recent <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/gas-price-iran-war-strait-hormuz-memorial-day.html" target="_blank">highs</a>, it's up 86 cents year-over-year.</li></ul><div>Data: AAA; Chart: Ben Geman/Axios</div><p><strong>State of play: </strong>Trump weighed expanding U.S. military strikes on Iran on Tuesday as he huddled with his team in a Situation Room meeting where they discussed a massive offensive wider in scope than the current bombardments.</p><ul><li>U.S. Central Command has said the recent strikes were in response to Iran's attacks on commercial shipping and aimed to further degrade Tehran's military capabilities.</li></ul><p><strong>What we're watching:</strong> As the Strait of Hormuz crisis ensnares global markets, countries and companies are scrambling for ways to <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/14/oil-hormuz-pipelines-trump" target="_blank">bypass the waterway</a>.</p><p><strong>Go deeper: </strong><a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/06/25/trump-gas-prices-gallup" target="_blank">Rise in gas prices caused "financial hardship" for two-thirds of households surveyed</a></p>
<div>Data: <a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https%3A//financialmodelingprep.com__;!!Al82Z4c!zXNHkLPPJSU1owXJ1LGGoisGlsE4-vSeBvGITXQF2rGCdrW9OdBSF-g-BPXyNd3Tly4gUzoa$" target="_blank">Financial Modeling Prep</a>; Chart: Ben Geman/Axios</div><p>Oil prices jumped above $90 per barrel Sunday in the first major trading since the deaths of <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/19/us-military-finds-service-member-remains-jordan" target="_blank">three U.S. service members</a> and escalating Middle East hostilities.</p><p><strong>Why it matters: </strong>Higher <a href="https://www.axios.com/energy-climate/oil-companies" target="_blank">oil</a> prices could quickly translate into more expensive gasoline for consumers and diesel for freight carriers while increasing inflation risks worldwide.</p><hr /><p><strong>Context: </strong><a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/04/04/oil-prices-brent-crude" target="_blank">Brent crude's</a> move above $90 a barrel — its first since mid-June — builds on last week's gains after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deteriorated further, <a href="https://x.com/Kpler/status/2078085624439898314" target="_blank">reducing</a> tanker <a href="https://www.lloydslistintelligence.com/intelligence/miu/strait-of-hormuz-transits" target="_blank">traffic</a> through the Strait of Hormuz following a brief rebound.</p><ul><li>The nationwide average U.S. gasoline price was just below the politically important $4-per-gallon mark Sunday, per <a href="https://gasprices.aaa.com/" target="_blank">AAA</a>, and is likely to rise above that level Monday.</li></ul><p><strong>Catch up quick: </strong>The weekend brought further signs that the U.S.-<a href="https://www.axios.com/world/iran" target="_blank">Iran</a> agreement and ceasefire have given way to renewed and expanding strikes.</p><ul><li>That includes reported Iranian <a href="https://x.com/kuna_ar/status/2078420141633597541" target="_blank">attacks</a> on oil and electricity <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/water-energy-sites-hit-us-iran-strikes-escalate-rcna588143" target="_blank">infrastructure</a> in Kuwait. </li></ul><p><strong>Threat level:</strong> Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on Saturday <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/18/iran-khamenei-trump-war" target="_blank">accused President Trump</a> of violating the U.S.-Iran agreement.</p><ul><li>He pledged a strong response by Iran and its proxies if the fighting continues to escalate.</li><li>Trump <a href="https://www.newsnationnow.com/us-news/military/2-us-service-members-killed-in-action-in-jordan/" target="_blank">told NewsNation</a> that he "couldn't care less" about the Iranian leader's comments about the agreement. </li></ul><p><strong>What we're watching:</strong> Oil markets have proven surprisingly adaptable to the crisis, due to factors like reduced Chinese imports, governments' coordinated releases from stockpiles including the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and ample commercial stockpiles.</p><ul><li>But <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-18/oil-s-battered-shock-absorbers-risk-price-spike-as-war-returns" target="_blank">analysts warn</a> that these shock absorbers that prevented even larger price spikes earlier in the crisis are <a href="https://x.com/amoshochstein/status/2077812227890131406" target="_blank">eroding</a>.</li><li>And the market for <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/10/diesel-oil-inflation-iran" target="_blank">refined products</a> is facing particular woes, including the effectiveness of Ukraine's <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/17/russia-diesel-oil-drones" target="_blank">drone attacks</a> on Russian refineries, which prompted Russia to ban diesel exports.</li></ul>
<p>Just when Republicans thought they'd caught a break on gas prices, the collapse of President Trump's Iran deal is derailing their best chance to change the inflation story before the midterms.</p><p><strong>Why it matters: </strong>Falling gas prices are one of the most tangible ways to ease voter anger over inflation. Renewed combat — and the threat of <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/17/trump-iran-israel-refueling-planes" target="_blank">escalation</a> — has prices shooting back up.</p><hr /><p><strong>The big picture: </strong>Trump has said repeatedly that gas prices will "drop like a rock" when the war is over. But the war doesn't look like it's ending anytime soon.</p><ul><li>When the U.S. first launched attacks on Feb. 28, average gas prices nationally were $2.98 a gallon, per AAA. They eclipsed $4.50 in May, gradually dropped to about $3.75 earlier this month, and are now flirting with the $4 mark since combat broke out again.</li></ul><p><strong>Zoom in:</strong> Surprisingly, Americans typically don't punish politicians for their own economic suffering; instead, they tend to look at how government policies are affecting the country overall.</p><ul><li>But gas prices are a different story, says Stanford's Jon Krosnick, who's studied how they affect politics.</li><li>"It's hard to think about any other economic indicator where the number is literally posted on signs on the streets where everybody's traveling," he told Axios.</li></ul><div>Data: <a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https%3A//gasprices.aaa.com/__;!!Al82Z4c!y0HFkAWefl6_RWOl8MbMnWr2fsWdISurzWcs11lbv1fBnRzJfz0IDKiO1KTFftez3802ej3DDD26KFzBe25M$" target="_blank">AAA</a>; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals</div><p><strong>Zoom out: </strong>Krosnick, in a 2016 <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FxWxe0fX7w6nnpo6qzeaAJJzWye50y4Y/view" target="_blank">study</a> looking at three decades of evidence, found that a 10-cent increase in gas prices caused a 0.6% drop in a president's approval ratings. He said the effect extends to the president in power's party.</p><ul><li>Unlike other instances where presidents could blame other global factors, it's clear in this case that Trump owns the war.</li><li>And Iran's unwillingness to open the Strait of Hormuz shows he can't dictate events like he's used to.</li><li>"If the strait stays closed, he could be in deep trouble in the election," says Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former International Monetary Fund official. "Iran knows it can cause real damage to the economy before the election."</li><li>Nearly eight in 10 Americans say gas prices are straining their household budgets, according to a PBS/NPR/Marist <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trumps-economic-approval-rating-hits-new-low-poll-finds" target="_blank">poll</a> last month.</li></ul><p><strong>Context: </strong>The Republican-controlled Congress approved a housing affordability bill that Trump panned. Otherwise, the GOP has little to point to on the subject of voters feeling squeezed by higher prices.</p><ul><li>Trump has fixated on unproven allegations of voter fraud, rather than inflation and the economy.</li><li>"I think oil is going to be a little bit of a yo-yo. Goes up a little bit, goes down a little bit," Trump <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKOT6QWkrIQ" target="_blank">told Fox Business</a> last week. "And when this is over oil is gonna drop like a rock."</li></ul><p><strong>Yes, but: </strong>The status of the war changes constantly. With almost four months until the election, conditions in Iran could shift in a way that causes gas prices to fall again in time for Republicans to benefit.</p><ul><li>"Long-term trends matter, but short-term trends also matter," Krosnick says.</li></ul><p><strong>The bottom line: </strong>As gas prices go, so may GOP hopes in the midterms.</p>
<div>Data: Global Energy Monitor, Axios research; Map: Danielle Alberti/Axios</div><p>The oil market's top players aren't waiting around to see <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/13/trump-iran-blockade-strait-hormuz" target="_blank">who winds up with control</a> over the Strait of Hormuz — countries and companies are scrambling to bypass the waterway.</p><p><strong>Why it matters: </strong>The Iran war threw a spotlight on the strait as the longtime center of the global energy trade, and the industry now has a huge incentive to <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/09/iran-war-hormuz-oil-natural-gas-energy-transition" target="_blank">reduce its dependence</a>, regardless of the war's outcome.</p><ul><li>"The 2026 U.S.-Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption may ultimately be remembered less for triggering an immediate oil crisis than for accelerating global efforts to reduce dependence on the world's most important energy chokepoint," Bloomberg Intelligence analysts wrote in a report. </li></ul><hr /><p><strong>The latest: </strong>The ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran is quickly unraveling.</p><ul><li>On Monday, President Trump said the U.S. would reinstate its blockade of Iran in the strait and proposed charging other countries 20% of the value of cargo shipped through it. </li><li>The threat may not actually materialize — the <a href="https://www.imo.org/" target="_blank">International Maritime Organization</a> says <a href="https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-hormuz-strait-war-july-13-2026-6c2c44cfdd089d6393d18fa5930ed620" target="_blank">there's no legal basis</a> for a toll — but it certainly gives producers even more incentive to figure out alternative shipment methods.</li></ul><p><strong>Follow the money: </strong>Trump's remarks helped send oil up by more than 9%. The price of a barrel of benchmark Brent crude oil is at $86.57 — it fell below $70 after the ceasefire was announced.</p><ul><li>Still, this is far below the levels reached in the first weeks of the conflict. </li></ul><p><strong>What to watch: </strong>Commodity analysts at Goldman Sachs looked at seven pipeline and export-infrastructure projects that are under construction, planned or considered potentially feasible.</p><ul><li>By the end of next year, that capacity — plus existing pipelines — could insulate more than 45% of the pre-war level of Persian Gulf producers' exports from any potential future Hormuz shocks, they estimated in a note out Sunday night.</li><li>By the end of 2028, the number rises to more than 60%.</li></ul><p><strong>Zoom in: </strong>Two projects are already under construction: the West-East pipeline in the UAE and the Basra-Haditha Pipeline in Iraq.</p><ul><li>And a Dubai-based port operator is in talks to develop a new port on the coast of the UAE to reduce the country's dependence on the strait, the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1f97b548-1bd8-41c8-8380-043ec688d77a?accessToken=zwAAAZ9cTq7Akc8fl7VIG9hByNODgAQ-xojXeg.MEQCIC-QxHyCYneVlQQdUgvQHcoBdTOR6T0wWXBeGKmSKbfqAiBPDJG_DgQviJLNI78Pv5hzD5jz9r6MQZyDwdumT_UZhQ&sharetype=gift&token=885ab15f-88f3-40d7-8172-74d42a40c9f0&syn-25a6b1a6=1" target="_blank">Financial Times</a> reported Monday.</li></ul><p><strong>Zoom out:</strong> Construction for these pipelines is expected to be relatively quick — shockingly so for those used to the U.S. pace of infrastructure development. </p><ul><li>Goldman looked at nine other pipeline projects, mainly in the Gulf, and the median time to complete was 2.5 years. Plus, the analysts found that projects prompted by supply disruptions tended to move faster.</li></ul><p><strong>Reality check: </strong>For now, the world still needs the strait. The Bloomberg Intelligence analysts noted that 7 million to 9 million barrels of crude and refined products per day would remain exposed to its risks even after a rerouting buildout.</p><ul><li>Qatar's liquefied natural gas exports have no realistic alternative, and Kuwait and Iraq remain heavily dependent on the strait.</li></ul><p><strong>The big picture:</strong> Roughly 20% of the world's oil flowed through the waterway at the outset of the war, and analysts forecast dire outcomes for the energy market with its disruption.</p><ul><li>Those proved overly apocalyptic, to say the least. To paraphrase Jeff Goldblum's character in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oijEsqT2QKQ" target="_blank">"Jurassic Park,"</a> oil found a way.</li><li>This wasn't due to the new buildout but to China's reduction in oil imports, the historic release of oil reserves and existing bypass capabilities — and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/06/17/iran-had-healthy-oil-sales-through-months-war-thanks-higher-prices/" target="_blank">shadow exports of oil</a> through the strait.</li></ul><p><strong>Between the lines: </strong>Again and again in recent years, markets have proved far more resilient and dynamic in response to major shocks than analysts and economists had predicted. </p><p><strong>The bottom line: </strong>The outcome of the war remains uncertain, but the global trade in oil is sure to be reshaped as a result.</p>
<div>Data: <a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https%3A//financialmodelingprep.com__;!!Al82Z4c!03kExSB3fMAGox9pOMnY6BhSIlLsDzPIVAwMktQNA0W6scj_51b1YxBPZmnzahBr6YYcuzoT$" target="_blank">Financial Modeling Prep</a>; Chart: Ben Geman/Axios</div><p>Oil prices surged about 9% Monday to roughly $83 per barrel after President <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/13/trump-iran-blockade-strait-hormuz" target="_blank">Trump claimed</a> the U.S. was reinstating a naval <a href="https://x.com/CENTCOM/article/2076732825349628250" target="_blank">blockade</a> on Iran, adding to gains already driven by <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/11/iran-strikes-cargo-ship-in-strait-of-hormuz-defying-us-ultimatum" target="_blank">renewed hostilities</a> over the weekend.</p><p><strong>Why it matters:</strong> Higher oil prices typically feed into higher gasoline prices, potentially <a href="https://x.com/GasBuddyGuy/status/2076725033049743849" target="_blank">pushing</a> the national average back toward $4 per gallon.</p><hr /><p><strong>Context: </strong>The average U.S. price was $3.87 per gallon Monday morning, per <a href="https://gasprices.aaa.com/" target="_blank">AAA data</a>, up about 7 cents over the past week but far below the <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/05/20/gas-prices-us-iran-war-4-dollars-50-states" target="_blank">$4.56 per gallon</a> reached in May.</p><p><strong>Catch up quick: </strong>"The <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/06/25/iran-ship-attacked-strait-hormuz-un-sailors-evacuation-paused" target="_blank">Hormuz Strait</a> is OPEN, and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran," Trump <a href="https://truthsocial.com/%40realDonaldTrump/posts/116913091653271692" target="_blank">wrote</a> on his Truth Social account Monday.</p><ul><li>"We are reinstating the THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran's ships or customers from entering or leaving. All other countries will have fair and open use of <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/03/05/iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-shutdown-us-global-economy" target="_blank">the Strait</a>," Trump said.</li><li>The U.S. will seek reimbursement "at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security," he added.</li></ul><p><strong>Reality check:</strong> Despite Trump's claim of an open strait, vessel tracking services like <a href="https://x.com/Kpler/status/2076600222109630907" target="_blank">Kpler</a> have reported a steep decline in ships <a href="https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/2076648580043960378" target="_blank">transiting</a> the waterway in recent days, reversing much of the revival that followed the signing of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding.</p><ul><li> This includes a <a href="https://cdn.roxhillmedia.com/production/email/attachment/1830001_1840000/8fd6dbe83be9dacd74473db062c8360b415943f5.pdf" target="_blank">reduction</a> of inbound oil tankers entering the Strait to load, per the research and consulting firm S&P Global Energy.</li></ul>
<p>President Trump announced on Monday that the U.S. is reinstating the naval blockade on <a href="https://www.axios.com/world/iran" target="_blank">Iran</a> and will prevent any ships from leaving or entering Iranian ports. The blockade will go into effect on July 14 at 4pm ET.</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/donald-trump" target="_blank">Trump</a> also claimed the U.S. would be "reimbursed" at a rate of 20% for securing safe passage for cargo ships, though the details and seriousness of the initiative were not immediately clear.</li></ul><p><strong>Why it matters:</strong> The blockade — a response to <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/11/iran-strikes-cargo-ship-in-strait-of-hormuz-defying-us-ultimatum" target="_blank">renewed clashes between the U.S. and Iran</a> in recent days — threatens to dramatically escalate tensions in the strait and change the economics of shipping energy and materials in the Middle East. </p><hr /><ul><li>It marks a further unraveling of the U.S.-Iran <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/06/17/read-full-us-iran-deal-memorandum-understanding" target="_blank">memorandum of understanding</a> (MOU), which <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/10/trump-iran-talks-ceasefire-over" target="_blank">Trump declared</a> "over" last week after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps resumed attacks on commercial ships.</li></ul><p><strong>Driving the news: </strong>After a day of negotiations with regional mediators on Saturday, the IRGC attacked another ship and declared <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/06/25/iran-ship-attacked-strait-hormuz-un-sailors-evacuation-paused" target="_blank">the strait</a> "closed until further notice" — triggering two round of U.S. strikes on Iran on Saturday and Sunday.</p><ul><li>A U.S. defense official said the U.S. military has plans for several days of additional strikes in <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/03/05/iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-shutdown-us-global-economy" target="_blank">the Hormuz</a> area and on Iran's southern coastline aimed at degrading the IRGC's ability attack ships. </li><li>The U.S. defense official claimed the southern route in the strait of Hormuz is still open, with at least 20 ships transiting through in coordination with the U.S. and several others without coordination. </li></ul><p><strong>What he's saying:</strong> "The Hormuz Strait is OPEN, and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran. We are reinstating the THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran's ships or customers from entering or leaving. All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait," Trump <a href="https://truthsocial.com/%40realDonaldTrump/posts/116913091653271692" target="_blank">wrote</a> on his Truth Social account. </p><ul><li>He added that the U.S. "will be, from this point forward, known as 'THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT'" and will ask to be "reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped" in exchange for providing security. </li><li>"The process and formation will begin immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!" Trump wrote.</li></ul><p><strong>State of play: </strong>The U.S. Navy <a href="https://x.com/CENTCOM/article/2076732825349628250" target="_blank">announced</a> on Monday that the blockade will come into effect on July 14 at 4pm ET. </p><ul><li>"U.S. Central Command will begin enforcement of a naval blockade of all Iranian ports and Iranian coastal areas. All neutral vessels are hereby warned and have the period until enforcement begins to depart the blockaded area," the Navy statement said. </li><li>The Navy said the blockade "encompasses the entirety of the Iranian coastline to include but not limited to Iranian ports and oil terminals," and applies to all vessel traffic, regardless of flag. </li><li>"Any vessel suspected of entering or departing the blockaded area without authorization is subject to interception, diversion, and capture. Non-compliant vessels may be legally compelled with force."</li></ul><p><strong>Between the lines: </strong>Transit of ships through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations will not be impeded, according to the announcement.</p><ul><li>Humanitarian shipments like food and medical supplies will be permitted to reach Iranian ports, subject to inspection. </li></ul><p><strong>The intrigue: </strong>A senior Gulf source told Axios the U.S. hasn't discussed the issue of possible tolls for securing the Strait of Hormuz with its allies in the region.</p><p><strong>The other side: </strong>Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi used Trump's statement to justify Iran's demand for collecting service fees from ships that pass through the strait. </p><ul><li>"POTUS is absolutely right. Whoever provides secure and safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for this service. Iran has always been the GUARDIAN of the Strait and will remain so FOREVER. 20% is of course too much. We will be fair," he <a href="https://x.com/araghchi/status/2076728062662557961?s=20" target="_blank">wrote on X</a>. </li><li>Lebanon's Al-Mayadeen TV network, which is affiliated with the pro-Iranian "Axis of Resistance," quoted an Iranian security official who claimed Iran still controls the strait and will escalate its response if the U.S. continues its "provocative behavior."</li><li>"The security and administration of the Strait of Hormuz are determined by Iran's will — not by Trump's tweets and not by the presence of warships," the Iranian official told Al-Mayadeen. </li></ul><p><em>This is a breaking news story. Check back for updates.</em></p>
AAA says the national average for a gallon of gas has jumped to $4 once again amid recent escalations in the U.S.' war with Iran, causing many Americans to struggle. Kris Van Cleave reports.
The U.S. military said it struck Iranian military targets on Saturday after an Iranian drone hit a container ship.