Inflation Hits Multi-Year Highs After Midterms—Who's to Blame?
Left says
- •The Iran war, tariffs, and corporate pricing power are driving costs higher, not any policy failure by the incoming Democratic majority, who have had no time to act on affordability promises made just over a week ago.
- •Core inflation excluding food and energy is broadening across services like medical care, insurance, and car insurance, showing this is a structural problem built over years rather than something tied to any single recent event.
- •Wages have now failed to keep pace with prices for three straight months, meaning working families are losing ground even with a strong labor market, which validates the economic anxiety that fueled midterm losses for Republicans.
- •Voters delivered a clear verdict on affordability during the midterms, and the exit polling showing nearly nine in ten voters cited cost of living as decisive reflects years of frustration under the prior administration's handling of inflation.
Right says
- •Producer prices surged to 6.5%, the highest since late 2022, signaling that businesses are absorbing cost increases now that will inevitably be passed on to consumers in the months ahead.
- •A Chicago Fed official acknowledges inflation has stayed above the 2% target for nearly six years with no real progress lately, undercutting any narrative that this is a brief or externally caused spike.
- •Tariff policy and the costs of the Iran conflict are legitimate contributors, but persistent core inflation excluding food and energy suggests deeper, longer-running price pressures predate any single recent policy or event.
- •The Federal Reserve now faces pressure to consider a larger-than-usual rate hike in December, which signals how serious policymakers view the inflation threat heading into next year.
Common Take
High Consensus- The Producer Price Index rose 6.5% year-over-year, the highest rate since November 2022.
- Consumer Price Index inflation reached approximately 4% annually, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) at about 2.8%.
- Wage growth has not kept pace with inflation for three consecutive months, reducing real purchasing power for workers.
- Nearly nine in ten voters identified the cost of living as a crucial or major factor in the recent midterm elections.
- The Federal Reserve's December 8-9 policy meeting will be a critical moment for determining the path of interest rates.
The Arguments
Left argues
The Iran war, tariffs, and corporate pricing power are driving current price surges—factors entirely outside the control of an incoming Democratic majority that has had no time to govern since winning on affordability promises just over a week ago.
Right counters
Blaming only recent external shocks ignores that a Chicago Fed official says inflation has been above target for almost six years with no recent progress, meaning the problem is structural and predates the Iran war or this year's tariffs.
Right argues
Producer prices surging to 6.5%, the highest since late 2022, is a leading indicator that businesses are absorbing costs now that will inevitably be passed to consumers, suggesting the inflation problem is poised to worsen rather than ease.
Left counters
Even the PPI data cited shows energy and tariff-related costs like diesel are major drivers, and core CPI excluding food and energy rose only 0.3%, which is consistent with an externally-driven shock rather than runaway broad-based pricing power.
Left argues
Wages have failed to outpace prices for three consecutive months despite a strong labor market, validating the economic anxiety that drove the midterm backlash and showing ordinary workers are losing real purchasing power regardless of job numbers.
Right counters
A tight labor market with falling real wages alongside persistently high core inflation is itself evidence of embedded, demand-driven inflation pressures that preceded the current administration's policies and can't simply be pinned on recent shocks.
Right argues
Core inflation excluding food and energy remains stubbornly elevated across services like medical care, insurance, and car insurance, which shows deep-seated price pressures that long predate any single recent policy, undermining claims this is a temporary, externally-caused spike.
Left counters
Acknowledging structural, multi-year inflation actually supports the left's argument that this is not something the incoming Democratic majority caused or can fix within days of taking power, since the same data shows the trend stretches back under the prior administration.
Right argues
The Fed now faces pressure to consider a larger-than-usual rate hike in December, a signal that policymakers themselves view the inflation threat as serious and accelerating, not a passing or minor concern.
Left counters
A looming aggressive rate hike actually underscores the scale of damage from tariffs and war-driven energy costs that predate any Democratic policy response, reinforcing that the political blame lies with decisions made before the midterms, not after.
Challenge Questions
These questions target genuine internal contradictions — meant to provoke honest reflection.
Right asks Left
“If core inflation excluding food and energy has been broadening across services for years, as your own synopsis states, why should voters accept that the incoming Democratic majority bears no responsibility while still crediting them with solving a problem described as structural and multi-year?”
Left asks Right
“If inflation has persisted above target for nearly six years and core prices remain elevated independent of tariffs or the Iran war, why does the right's synopsis still emphasize tariff and war-related costs as 'legitimate contributors' rather than acknowledging these same structural forces implicate policy choices made well before the current conflict?”
Outlier Report
Left Fringe
Figures like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and progressive commentators (e.g., via outlets like The American Prospect) who blame corporate price-gouging almost exclusively and downplay any demand-side or monetary policy causes; roughly 15-20% of the left.
Right Fringe
Commentators like Peter Navarro and some MAGA-aligned voices who argue tariffs are not inflationary at all and blame the Fed or 'Biden-era' residual effects almost entirely, dismissing any tariff/war contribution; roughly 15-20% of the right.
Noise Assessment
High - much of the X/Twitter discourse (e.g., viral posts like Heather Long's) and cable punditry focuses on scoring partisan points about who 'owns' inflation post-midterms, while the actual lived experience of price pain is a steadier, less partisan concern for most Americans.
Sources (7)
<p>America's inflation problem is stubborn, broadening out and showing no sign of letting up.</p><p><strong>Why it matters:</strong> October marked the third straight month of hotter-than-expected <a href="https://www.axios.com/economy/inflation" target="_blank">inflation</a>, defying repeated predictions over the last couple of years that price pressures were finally about to ease. </p><ul><li>In this sixth consecutive year of steep price increases, consumers are finding there is nowhere to hide from inflation. </li><li>The Iran war has added to the pain, but other factors — tariffs and the AI investment boom — have also put upward pressure on costs, complicating an affordability problem that long predates the conflict.</li></ul><p><strong>What they're saying:</strong> "Today's inflation report is a warning shot," Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote Tuesday morning.</p><ul><li>"Coming just a week after the midterm elections exposed the depth of voters' concerns about affordability, the message for the Fed is uncomfortable but clear: The inflation fight is not finished," Shah wrote.</li></ul><p><strong>Driving the news: </strong>The headline Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October, down slightly from a 0.6% surge the previous month. </p><ul><li>Core CPI — which excludes volatile food and energy costs — climbed 0.3% for the third consecutive month, a sign that underlying inflationary pressures remain stubbornly persistent.</li></ul><p><strong>The Labor Department did not</strong> calculate October's annual inflation rate since last year's government shutdown prevented it from collecting price data for October 2025. </p><ul><li>But assuming prices that month were halfway between September and November, overall inflation over the last 12 months was 4% — up from 3.7% in September. Core inflation would have risen to 2.8%, up from 2.6%.</li><li>Another measure similarly paints a picture of hot inflation. Core prices rose at a 3.7% annualized pace over the three months through October, the fastest pace by this gauge all year. </li><li>It also is a sharp acceleration from the summer, when underlying inflation appeared to be cooling.</li></ul><p><strong>Zoom out: </strong>Gasoline prices advanced another 1% in October after surging 9.1% in September, adding to the steep increase in fuel costs since the Iran war began.</p><ul><li>Food prices climbed, raising concerns that higher diesel costs are rippling through to consumer prices. Grocery prices increased 0.4% after declining in September, while restaurant prices gained 0.5%.</li><li>Shelter costs rose 0.3%, accounting for more than 30% of the overall increase in consumer prices last month.</li></ul><p><strong>Zoom in:</strong> Inflation is persistent in the services sector, which is largely insulated from swings in energy prices. </p><ul><li>A closely watched inflation measure that excludes housing, energy and food prices surged 0.4% in October — pushed up by higher costs in transportation, medical care and insurance.</li></ul><p><strong>What to watch:</strong> A strong labor market is not providing much relief from the sharply rising cost of living.</p><ul><li>Inflation has now outpaced or matched wage growth for three consecutive months, leaving workers with less purchasing power.</li></ul>
<div>Data: <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm" target="_blank">Bureau of Labor Statistics</a>; Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios</div><p>Inflation remained hot in October, according to data from the Labor Department released on Tuesday.</p><p><strong>Why it matters:</strong> The Consumer Price Index shows that even as gasoline prices steadied, <a href="https://www.axios.com/economy/inflation" target="_blank">inflation pressures</a> elsewhere remained stubborn.</p><hr /><p><strong>By the numbers:</strong> CPI rose 0.4% last month, slowing from the 0.6% increase in September. </p><ul><li>Gasoline prices gained 1% in October, a sharp slowdown from the 9.1% surge in September, the Labor Department said.</li><li>Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, advanced 0.3% for the third straight month, with higher prices for recreation, medical care, car insurance and airline fares contributing to the increase.</li></ul><p><strong>Of note:</strong> The Labor Department did not publish year-over-year inflation rates for October. Last year's <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/11/13/government-shutdown-bls-report" target="_blank">government shutdown</a> left a gap in the data that prevents direct comparisons with October 2025.</p><ul><li>But if one assumes the October 2025 readings were halfway between September and November, year-over-year inflation comes to 4% — or 2.8% excluding food and energy.</li><li>That compares with September's annual inflation rate of 3.7%, or 2.6% excluding food and energy.</li></ul><p><strong>The big picture:</strong> The inflation report was already shaping up to be a crucial piece of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next month. But the stakes grew just hours before its release when Fed governor Christopher Waller raised the prospect of a larger-than-usual rate hike if inflation remains stubbornly elevated.</p><ul><li>In <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20261110a.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target="_blank">a speech</a>, Fed governor Christopher Waller said a half-point rate hike should be considered next month if core inflation rose by at least 0.3% in October — exactly what Tuesday's report showed.</li><li>The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is particularly sensitive to expectations for Fed interest rate policy, jumped 0.13% on Tuesday following Waller's comments and the CPI report. </li></ul><p><strong>What to watch:</strong> The report also offers a fresh measure of the inflation problem that helped shape last week's midterm elections.</p><ul><li>Nearly nine in 10 voters said the cost of living was a "crucial" or "major" factor in their vote in last week's midterms, according to <a href="https://abcnews.com/Elections/polls-2026-us-house-election-results-analysis" target="_blank">national exit polling data</a>.</li><li>Democrats won on promises to lower prices for groceries and other essentials. Now they face the more difficult task of delivering on their promises, with <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/11/05/now-comes-the-test-for-dems-household-budget-relief" target="_blank">limited power</a> to reverse years of price increases.</li></ul><p><strong>The bottom line:</strong> Inflation remains stubbornly hot, strengthening the case for another Fed rate hike and prolonging the cost-of-living pressures that have frustrated American households.</p><p><em>Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details.</em></p>
<p>Calley Means quickly rose from wellness entrepreneur to senior Trump health adviser — and now he's attacking the White House and suggesting <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/11/08/todd-blanche-calley-means-susie-wiles-maha-allegations" target="_self">top aides undermined</a> the president's health agenda.</p><p><strong>Why it matters: </strong>His scorched-earth campaign — which continued Monday in comments to Axios — marks a stunning turn for a figure who was the administration's most vocal advocate of the "Make America Healthy Again" agenda.</p><hr /><ul><li>It also raises questions about what the escalating fight between Means and former White House officials will accomplish for the movement.</li></ul><p><strong>Driving the news: </strong>Means told Axios he's going public with his <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/11/06/trump-joe-rogan-calley-means" target="_blank">allegations of corruption</a> — especially by former White House chief of staff <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/11/06/susie-wiles-trump-stephen-miller-chief-of-staff" target="_self">Susie Wiles</a> — because of the high stakes.</p><ul><li>"It is existential to the survival [of] America that we rid DC of Susie's brand of politics," Means said in a text exchange.</li><li>Means' initial comments on Friday's episode of "The Joe Rogan Experience" <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/11/06/trump-joe-rogan-calley-means" target="_blank">went viral</a>, and he continued the campaign with an appearance on CBS' "Face the Nation" Sunday.</li><li>Asked if he's worried about lawsuits <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/11/08/todd-blanche-calley-means-susie-wiles-maha-allegations" target="_blank">after comments</a> from a Wiles spokesperson and former White House deputy chief of staff James Blair — who Means has also accused of wrongdoing — Means pointed to his <a href="https://x.com/calleymeans/status/2119417912264200504?a=tbzKT4AiAJVzzBT8_S0&s=20" target="_blank">X post</a> warning them and other parties to "immediately preserve all potentially relevant records and communications."</li></ul><p><strong>Means has kept up </strong>a steady stream of X posts about his allegations and the way he claims the officials have responded to them.</p><ul><li>"Susie - I'm not intimidated and you will not scare me. Again, please stop sending me emotional texts. This is not personal - this is civilizational," Means <a href="https://x.com/calleymeans/status/2119809633443250182?a=viccOwjpz5WntBqlv9U&s=20" target="_blank">posted Monday</a>.</li><li>White House spokesperson Allison Schuster said in a statement the Trump administration has won "extensive victories for the MAHA Agenda." The Department of Health and Human Services and a Wiles spokesperson didn't respond to requests for comment.</li></ul><p><strong>The big picture: </strong>After hitching their wagon to President Trump ahead of the 2024 election, MAHA leaders have been complaining for months of a lack of progress on issues around healthy foods and pesticide use.</p><ul><li>But whether the public feud Means has initiated will have any impact on the policy agenda he's championed — or whether it's more of a personal grievance tour — remains to be seen.</li><li>A former HHS official said that after Republicans' midterm wipeout, Means is "highlighting that one of the more popular aspects of Trump's domestic agenda should be something [the administration] spends more time on to prepare the party for 2028."</li></ul><p><strong>The intrigue:</strong> The MAHA base sees incoming chief of staff Stephen Miller as an ally, even though he hasn't said much about movement priorities like cleaning up the food supply, curbing food additives or scrutinizing vaccines.</p><ul><li>Miller's wife, Katie, hosted Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on her podcast and has posted photos of dishes with ingredients like raw milk, per the <a href="https://www.washingtonsun.com/health/rfk-jr-trump-miller-post-midterms" target="_blank">Washington Sun</a>.</li><li>Means told "Face the Nation" that Miller understands corporate influence over health care and that he represents a break from Wiles.</li><li>"Stephen Miller has been nothing short of a champion in Making America Healthy Again. As a father of four, Miller is acutely aware of the importance of transforming our food, health, and scientific systems for the next generation of Americans," Schuster said.</li></ul><p><strong>Zoom in:</strong> Means, who resigned from his senior adviser post late last month, grew up in Washington and interned in George W. Bush's White House and at the Heritage Foundation before going on to work as a consultant to beverage and drug industries.</p><ul><li>He <a href="https://www.axios.com/pro/health-care-policy/2024/10/31/calley-means-on-the-maha-movement" target="_blank">told Axios</a> in 2024 that his mother's preventable death from a chronic disease in 2021 prompted him and his sister, "functional medicine" physician and health influencer Casey Means, to advocate and work to reverse the chronic disease crisis. The siblings wrote a best-selling book called "Good Energy."</li><li>Calley Means also co-founded Truemed, a company that helps people buy wellness equipment using money in health savings accounts, retaining an interest while advising Kennedy, per the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/24/health/calley-means-truemed-trump-health-savings.html" target="_blank">New York Times</a>.</li></ul><p><strong>Means is widely credited</strong> with facilitating the alliance between Kennedy and President Trump in the summer of 2024 and became a special government employee in the new Trump administration. </p><ul><li>He made frequent, at times flamboyant appearances in public forums, railing against a "crisis of trust" in health care institutions and claiming at one <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/05/14/elon-musk-calley-means-health" target="_blank">2025 Axios event</a> that Kennedy "has a spiritual mandate" from voters to reform broken government institutions.</li><li>Means' sister was tapped by Trump to be surgeon general, only to see the nomination <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr5p4pp1407o" target="_blank">withdrawn in April</a> amid questions over whether she could win over enough Republican senators to be confirmed. Calley Means at the time blamed Senate health committee Chair Bill Cassidy (R-La.) for delay tactics. </li></ul><p><strong>What we're watching:</strong> It's not clear what role Means will play outside the administration — or whether his turnabout has helped or hurt the MAHA cause.</p><ul><li>Key initiatives like developing a definition for ultra-processed foods remain unfinished, and the Food and Drug Administration appears to be taking a more conciliatory stance toward drug developers and other industries it regulates. </li></ul>
With another month of higher numbers for consumer prices, it seems likely the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ October jobs report was strong, but a growing number of people are unable to find full-time employment.
Employer-sponsored insurance, the backbone of American coverage, is becoming more frail