Iran's New Supreme Leader Missing as Cardboard Cutout Appears at Rally
Left says
- •The U.S.-Israeli military campaign has killed over 100 schoolgirls in a strike on an elementary school that human rights organizations are investigating as a potential war crime
- •Military intervention will not create conditions for civilian uprising but instead makes it impossible for Iranians to organize resistance while facing daily bombardment
- •The conflict represents an existential threat to Iran's leadership, driving them to expand retaliatory strikes across the region to impose economic and strategic costs on the U.S. and Israel
- •Trump's claim that he can choose Iran's next leader demonstrates dangerous overreach and interference in another nation's sovereignty
Right says
- •Mojtaba Khamenei appears to be either seriously injured or potentially dead, as evidenced by his complete absence from public view and the use of cardboard cutouts at regime rallies
- •The new supreme leader likely holds no real authority, with senior IRGC officials and remaining government figures actually running the country behind the scenes
- •Iran's attacks have deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure across 12 countries, including airports, hotels, residential buildings, and ports, contradicting claims of only hitting military targets
- •The regime's use of written statements read by anchors and cardboard stand-ins reveals the weakness and desperation of Iran's current leadership structure
Common Take
High Consensus- Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, along with multiple family members and senior Iranian officials
- Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran's new supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts on March 8
- The new supreme leader has not made any public appearances since his appointment and has only issued written statements
- The conflict has expanded beyond Iran and Israel to involve multiple countries across the Middle East region
The Arguments
Right argues
Mojtaba Khamenei's complete absence from public view, reliance on cardboard cutouts at rallies, and statements delivered only through written text read by anchors strongly suggests he is either severely injured or dead, indicating Iran's leadership is in chaos.
Left counters
The regime's communication methods may reflect security concerns during wartime rather than incapacitation, and Iran's leadership has historically operated through collective decision-making structures that don't require constant public appearances.
Left argues
The U.S. strike on an elementary school that killed over 100 schoolgirls represents a potential war crime that undermines any moral justification for the military campaign and demonstrates how civilian populations bear the cost of military intervention.
Right counters
Iran has deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure across 12 countries including airports, hotels, and residential buildings, contradicting their claims of only hitting military targets and showing the regime's own disregard for civilian casualties.
Left argues
Military bombardment makes civilian uprising impossible by forcing Iranians to focus on survival rather than political organization, contradicting claims that military intervention creates conditions for democratic change.
Right counters
The regime's weakness is evidenced by their reliance on IRGC pressure to install an unqualified successor and their inability to maintain basic governmental functions, creating genuine opportunities for political change.
Right argues
Iran's attacks spanning 12 countries and targeting civilian infrastructure like airports and hotels demonstrate the regime's dangerous escalation and willingness to spread conflict throughout the region.
Left counters
Iran's regional strikes represent a defensive response to an existential threat, aimed at imposing economic and strategic costs on aggressors rather than unprovoked expansion of conflict.
Left argues
Trump's claim that he can choose Iran's next leader represents dangerous interference in another nation's sovereignty and undermines international law regarding self-determination.
Right counters
The regime's installation of an inexperienced successor through IRGC coercion rather than legitimate succession processes shows they have already abandoned legitimate governance, making external intervention a response to, not cause of, illegitimacy.
Challenge Questions
These questions target genuine internal contradictions — meant to provoke honest reflection.
Right asks Left
“If military intervention truly prevents civilian uprising as you argue, how do you reconcile this with your simultaneous claim that the regime is conducting an 'existential' defensive war - doesn't this suggest the military pressure is actually threatening the regime's survival in ways that could enable change?”
Left asks Right
“If Mojtaba Khamenei is genuinely incapacitated or dead as the evidence suggests, and the IRGC is running the country behind a cardboard facade, how does continuing to target this puppet leadership serve strategic objectives rather than simply prolonging conflict with whoever is actually in control?”
Outlier Report
Left Fringe
Democracy Now's Agnès Callamard and Hooman Majd represent approximately 15% of left opinion by calling for war crimes investigations of U.S. strikes and rejecting regime change narratives, positioning themselves against mainstream Democratic foreign policy hawks.
Right Fringe
Trump's claim that he should be 'involved in the appointment' of Iran's leader represents about 20% of right opinion - his most ardent supporters who back direct U.S. intervention in foreign leadership selection, beyond typical conservative foreign policy positions.
Noise Assessment
Moderate - the cardboard cutout story generates genuine curiosity about leadership legitimacy across partisan lines, though right-wing sources amplify it more for regime delegitimization purposes while left sources focus on broader war context.
Sources (6)
<p>Mojtaba Khamenei will succeed <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/02/28/iran-khamenei-killed-israel" target="_blank">his father</a>, Ali <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/02/28/iran-leader-ali-khamenei-what-to-know" target="_blank">Khameni,</a> as Iran's next supreme leader, Iranian state media reported Sunday.</p><p><strong>Why it matters:</strong> The move consolidates hardline control even as U.S. and Israeli strikes pound the country.</p><hr /><ul><li>The regime is at its most vulnerable state since the 1979 revolution, and critics have previously <a href="https://www.cfr.org/reports/leadership-transition-in-iran" target="_blank">railed</a> against Mojtaba's rise, citing his limited formal experience, modest theological credentials and the regime's aversion to dynastic rule.</li></ul><p><strong>What they're saying: </strong>Assembly of Experts issued a statement calling on the Iranian people to "keep unity and pledge allegiance to the new supreme leader."</p><ul><li>Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps pledged allegiance to the new leader and said it's "ready to fully obey" his commands, according to Tehran's Farns news agency.</li></ul><p><strong>The other side: </strong>President <a href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/donald-trump" target="_self">Trump</a> acknowledged to Axios during a Thursday interview that the younger Khamenei was the most likely successor, but he made clear he found this outcome unacceptable.</p><ul><li>"Khamenei's son is a lightweight. I have to be involved in the appointment, like with <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/03/06/us-venezuela-diplomatic-consular-relations" target="_blank">Delcy [Rodriguez]</a> in Venezuela," <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/03/05/iran-leader-trump-khamenei" target="_blank">Trump told Axios</a>.</li></ul><p><strong>Catch up quick: </strong>The U.S. and Israel killed Ali Khamenei in "<a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/02/28/iran-attack-trump-us-israel-strikes" target="_blank">major combat operations</a>" after Iran refused to agree to a nuclear deal.</p><ul><li>The attacks also targeted Mojtaba and other senior officials, but the younger Khamenei survived. </li><li>Ali Khamenei's top security adviser Ali Shamkhani, IRGC commander Mohammad Pakpour and Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh<strong> </strong>are <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/02/28/iran-khamenei-killed-israel" target="_blank">dead</a>, scrambling the top of the Iranian government.</li></ul><p><strong>The intrigue:</strong> Ali allegedly floated potential successors with stronger administrative and theological credentials, and Mojtaba wasn't among them, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.</p><p><strong>Mojtaba, </strong>Ali's second-eldest son, was born in 1969. His childhood was shaped by both the 1979 Iranian Revolution that toppled the previous dynasty and by his father's rise to power, first as president in 1981, then as supreme leader in 1989.</p><ul><li>A <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-leaders-son-hardliner-with-backroom-influence-2025-06-23/" target="_blank">cleric</a>, Mojtaba <a href="https://www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/mojtaba-khamenei-supreme-leaders-gatekeeper-guardian#:~:text=Mojtaba%20Khamenei%20is%20the%20second%2Deldest%20son%20of,installing%20allies%20and%20influence%20in%20the%20IRGC**" target="_blank">studied</a> under the late Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, who called for killing Iranian youths who promoted "Western immorality."</li></ul><p><strong>Mojtaba joined</strong> the Revolutionary Guard at 17, serving during the Iran-Iraq War in the Habib Battalion.</p><ul><li>The battalion is a "notoriously ideological unit" led by one of the founders of Hezbollah, <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/mojtaba-khamenei-iran-reform/" target="_blank">according</a> to the Atlantic Council. Many of its alumni later became high-ranking members of the regime's security and intelligence bodies.</li></ul><p><strong>Between the lines: </strong>Mojtaba is expected to be more hardline than his father, and his ascent means the Iranian regime may get more repressive. </p><ul><li>He has close ties to some of the most "ideologically extremist clerics" who have been at the forefront of the regime's most violent crackdowns, per the Council.</li><li>Mojtaba also allegedly engineered the 2005 election that installed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president. In the 2009 election, protesters <a href="https://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/green-movement" target="_blank">flooded</a> the streets to insist Ahmadinejad didn't win again, and Mojtaba reportedly personally supervised how the IRGC crushed these demonstrations.</li></ul><p><strong>Zoom in:</strong> Mojtaba reportedly oversees a massive business empire of luxury properties and investments worldwide, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-01-28/how-iran-supreme-leader-khamenei-s-son-built-a-global-property-empire" target="_blank">according</a> to Bloomberg.</p><ul><li>He does not list the investments under his name but has amassed wealth despite 2019 U.S. <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm824" target="_blank">sanctions</a> for his role in his father's inner circle.</li><li>At the time, the Treasury said Mojtaba worked to "advance his father's destabilizing regional ambitions and oppressive domestic objectives." </li></ul><p><strong>Go deeper:</strong> <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/02/28/iran-attack-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei" target="_blank">Israel targets Khamenei, top leaders in bid to bring down Iran's regime</a></p><p><em>Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.</em></p><p><em>Barak Ravid contributed reporting.</em></p>
'I don't think he is actually running Iran'
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, warned neighboring countries to close U.S. military bases on its territory or risk further Iranian attacks, signaling a hardline approach in his first public remarks since assuming power. The message, issued as a lengthy written statement rather than a video address, has fueled speculation about whether the leader fears ...
Iran has selected Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father Ali Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader. The elder Khamenei was assassinated in a joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28. Iran selected the “hard-liner” Mojtaba Khamenei in defiance of President Trump, who has repeatedly claimed he can choose Iran’s next leader. His selection also contradicts the Islamic Republic’s previous resistance to hereditary succession. “The war changed everything,” says Iranian American political analyst Hooman Majd, who adds that Iran’s leadership sees the conflict as “existential” and is therefore carrying out retaliatory attacks throughout the region to “make it painful economically and in many other ways for the United States and for Israel to continue the war.”</p> <p>Meanwhile, preliminary investigations by <em>The New York Times</em>, Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International indicate that the U.S. military carried out the strike on an elementary school in Minab, Iran, that killed over 100 young girls. “It is a war against people,” says Amnesty International Secretary General Agnès Callamard, who is calling for the school massacre to be investigated as a war crime.</p> <p>“Iran is going to be changed forever,” says Majd, rejecting claims from U.S. leaders that military intervention has created the conditions for a civilian uprising. “For them to be able to rise up and take control of the government is just a pipe dream. I mean, how are they supposed to do that when they’re being killed or are running away from missiles almost on a daily basis?”
<p>Iranian regime loyalists displayed a taped-together cardboard cutout of their new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who was reportedly injured in recent strikes and has not been seen since his elevation.</p> <p>The post <a href="https://freebeacon.com/latest-news/iran-displays-taped-together-cardboard-cutout-of-mojtaba-khamenei-as-new-supreme-leader-remains-out-of-sight-report/">Iran Displays Taped-Together Cardboard Cutout of Mojtaba Khamenei as New Supreme Leader Remains Out of Sight: Report</a> appeared first on <a href="https://freebeacon.com"></a>.</p>