Squad-Style Progressives Suffer Complete Wipeout in Illinois Primaries
Intra-Party Split Detected
Democratic establishment and moderate candidates decisively defeated Squad-aligned progressive insurgents across multiple Illinois House races, highlighting tensions between the party's centrist and far-left wings
Left says
- •AIPAC's massive spending through shell PACs with misleading names represents toxic influence that undermines democratic processes and voter choice
- •The defeats occurred despite minimal Justice Democrats spending, showing how corporate money can overwhelm grassroots organizing
- •Progressive messaging and values remain popular, as evidenced by AIPAC having to adopt progressive talking points to promote their preferred candidates
- •The losses don't reflect voter rejection of progressive policies but rather the distorting effect of millions in outside spending
Right says
- •Voters decisively rejected far-left candidates who centered their campaigns on extreme anti-Israel positions and socialist policies
- •The results demonstrate that even in deep blue Illinois, Democratic voters prefer moderate candidates over Squad-style progressives
- •AIPAC's success shows that pro-Israel advocacy remains effective and that voters support candidates who stand with America's key Middle East ally
- •The defeats signal broader trouble for insurgent progressive candidates nationwide who are out of step with mainstream Democratic voters
Common Take
High Consensus- Progressive candidates backed by Justice Democrats, the Sunrise Movement, and Bernie Sanders lost across multiple Illinois congressional districts
- AIPAC and affiliated groups spent over $22 million across Illinois House races, significantly outspending progressive organizations
- The results represent a significant victory for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and the Democratic establishment
- Money played a decisive role in these primaries, with outside spending reaching unprecedented levels for House races
The Arguments
Right argues
Even in deep blue Illinois, Democratic voters decisively rejected Squad-style candidates who centered their campaigns on anti-Israel positions and far-left policies, demonstrating that these positions are out of step with mainstream Democratic voters.
Left counters
The defeats occurred despite minimal Justice Democrats spending while AIPAC spent over $22 million through misleadingly-named shell PACs, showing that corporate money overwhelmed grassroots organizing rather than reflecting genuine voter preferences.
Left argues
AIPAC's use of deceptive shell PACs with names like 'Chicago Progressive Partnership' and their adoption of progressive talking points to promote their candidates proves that progressive messaging is popular and AIPAC had to disguise their true agenda.
Right counters
AIPAC's tactical flexibility shows effective political strategy, and their success demonstrates that pro-Israel advocacy remains powerful because voters ultimately support candidates who stand with America's key Middle East ally.
Left argues
The results represent a distortion of democratic processes where millions in outside corporate spending from AIPAC, crypto, and AI PACs can override grassroots organizing and authentic voter choice in local races.
Right counters
All political advocacy groups have the right to participate in elections, and voters ultimately made informed choices after hearing from multiple perspectives - the defeats show that extreme positions don't resonate even when well-funded.
Right argues
The Illinois results signal broader trouble for insurgent progressive candidates nationwide and represent good news for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is most popular among moderate and mainstream liberal Democrats.
Left counters
Progressive candidates like Daniel Biss still won despite AIPAC opposition, and the fact that AIPAC had to spend millions while adopting progressive messaging shows their influence is waning within the Democratic Party.
Challenge Questions
These questions target genuine internal contradictions — meant to provoke honest reflection.
Right asks Left
“If progressive messaging and values are truly popular as you claim, why couldn't well-organized progressive candidates with endorsements from Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and the Congressional Progressive Caucus overcome AIPAC's spending in a deep blue state where Democratic voters should be most receptive to these messages?”
Left asks Right
“If these defeats truly represent voter rejection of progressive policies rather than the influence of money, why did AIPAC feel compelled to spend over $22 million through deceptively-named PACs while adopting progressive talking points instead of running on their actual positions?”
Outlier Report
Left Fringe
Justice Democrats Executive Director Alexandra Rojas and hardcore anti-AIPAC activists who frame these losses as victories because AIPAC had to spend heavily, representing roughly 15% of the left who view any AIPAC involvement as inherently illegitimate regardless of outcomes.
Right Fringe
BlazeTV host Stu Burguiere and commentators who characterize all progressive Democrats as 'insane far-left' and celebrate intra-Democratic conflicts as total ideological victories, representing about 25% of the right who view moderate Democratic wins as conservative victories.
Noise Assessment
Moderate noise level - AIPAC and Justice Democrats both issued strategic statements framing results favorably, but the actual electoral outcomes speak clearly to voter preferences in these blue districts.
Sources (6)
<p>The left suffered a virtually total collapse in the Illinois Democratic congressional primaries on Tuesday night — even in races <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/03/18/aipac-illinois-primary-biss-abughazaleh-bean" target="_blank">where the AIPAC-backed candidate</a> lost.</p><p><strong>Why it matters: </strong>It's a bad sign for the dozens of insurgent Democrats running in congressional races across the country, both in open seats and as <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/03/03/democrats-2026-midterms-house-primaries-jeffries" target="_blank">primary rivals</a> to older or more establishment-oriented incumbents.</p><hr /><ul><li>It's great news for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), who is most popular among the moderate and mainstream liberal wings of his party.</li><li>Most of the Democratic House candidates who have <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/03/16/hakeem-jeffries-speaker-house-democratic-primaries" target="_blank">refused to commit to supporting Jeffries for leader or speaker</a> are leftist insurgents.</li></ul><p><strong>Driving the news: </strong><a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/10/29/kat-abughazaleh-indicted-ice-arrest-democrat" target="_blank">Kat Abughazaleh</a>, a left-wing influencer and journalist backed by Justice Democrats and the Sunrise Movement, lost to Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss in the closely watched race in Illinois' 9th district.</p><ul><li>Biss and Abughazaleh were both opposed by AIPAC, whose proxy Elect Chicago Women spent millions in support of pro-Israel state Sen. Laura Fine, who came in third.</li><li>But AIPAC pivoted in the final week of the campaign to focusing its fire on the more pro-Palestinian Abughazaleh than Biss, who was backed by the Congressional Progressive Caucus and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).</li><li>Another AIPAC affiliate, Chicago Progressive Partnership, <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/03/18/aipac-illinois-primary-biss-abughazaleh-bean" target="_blank">ran ads painting Abughazaleh</a> as a closet Republican and boosting a lower tier leftist in the race, Bushra Amiwala.</li></ul><p><strong>A similar story </strong>played out in the 8th district, where progressive Junaid Ahmed lost to moderate former Rep. Melissa Bean (D-Ill.), the pick of both AIPAC and crypto and AI-affiliated PACs.</p><ul><li>Unlike Abughazaleh, however, Ahmed was supported by both the CPC and Warren, as well as Justice Democrats, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and a local Democratic Socialists of America chapter.</li></ul><p><strong>Zoom out: </strong>In Illinois' 2nd district, progressive state Sen. Robert Peters came in a distant third behind AIPAC-backed Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller and former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. </p><ul><li>And in the 7th district, CPC-backed labor leader Anthony Driver Jr. and progressive organizer Kina Collins finished third and fourth. </li><li>The race was won by state Rep. La Shawn Ford, who edged out AIPAC-backed Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears Ervin.</li></ul><p><strong>What they're saying: "</strong>Life looks pretty good," AIPAC said in a <a href="https://x.com/AIPAC/status/2034114985027101107?s=20" target="_blank">post on X</a>, boasting that Illinois voters "rejected ... far-left, would-be Squad members who centered their campaigns on attacking Israel."</p><ul><li>On the 9th district, they said in <a href="https://x.com/AIPAC/status/2034117944993616320?s=20" target="_blank">another post</a>: "While disappointed Laura Fine didn't prevail, the pro-Israel community is proud to have helped defeat would-be Squad members Kat Abughazaleh and Bushra Amiwala."</li></ul><p><strong>The other side: </strong>Left-wing groups focused on the money spent by AIPAC and AI and crypto affiliated PACs, also noting that many of the ads those groups ran touted the more moderate candidates as progressive fighters while trying to undermine the left-wing bona fides of their leftist rivals.</p><ul><li>"It took AIPAC, AI, and Crypto coming together to spend millions whitewashing Melissa Bean's right-wing record in Congress to elect a former Congresswoman," Justice Democrats Executive Director Alexandra Rojas said in a statement on the result in the 8th district.</li><li>Rojas said the result in the 9th district "takes nothing away from the trailblazing campaign Kat ran" and "is a massive loss for AIPAC as they lose more and more influence within the Democratic Party."</li><li>"No amount of shell PACs or covert funding can hide their toxicity from Democratic voters," she said.</li><li>A Justice Democrats spokesperson also stressed that the group spent very little in these races, while AIPAC's spending was, in several cases, combined with spending by AI and crypto PACs.</li></ul>
<p>The <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/03/13/aipac-illinois-abughazaleh-ahmed-bean-biss-israel" target="_blank">pro-Israel group AIPAC</a> notched some much-needed victories on Tuesday night in Illinois, with two Democratic House candidates it backed winning their races.</p><p><strong>Why it matters: </strong>Long a <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/06/26/democrats-aipac-jamaal-bowman-george-latimer" target="_blank">big spender in Democratic politics,</a> AIPAC's reputation within the party's grassroots has never been worse. And yet, with some delicate maneuvering, it proved it can still use its massive campaign war-chest to devastating effect.</p><hr /><ul><li>The group largely disguised the millions it spent across four Illinois House races, funneling money through PACs with anodyne names like Elect Chicago Women and Chicago Progressive Partnership.</li><li>The latter group targeted pro-Palestinian progressives by going after their leftist bona fides — essentially accusing them of being closet Republicans — and even, in one case, boosting a left-wing splinter candidate. </li><li>"I think it's fair to say that Illinois made AIPAC the comeback kid," one centrist House Democrat told Axios.</li></ul><p><strong>Driving the news: </strong>Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller defeated former Rep. <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/10/08/jesse-jackson-jr-comeback-bid-congress-illinois" target="_blank">Jesse Jackson Jr.</a> and progressive state Sen. Robert Peters in the state's 2nd congressional district.</p><ul><li>Miller was supported by nearly $4.5 million in ad spending from AIPAC-affiliated group Affordable Chicago Now, according to AdImpact.</li><li>Rep. <a href="https://www.axios.com/local/chicago/2026/02/12/robin-kelly-primary-2nd-district-jackson-jr-miller-preston-peters" target="_blank">Robin Kelly</a> (D-Ill.) gave up the seat to run for U.S. Senate, but lost to Lt. Gov. <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/03/18/juliana-stratton-wins-illinois-democratic-primary-senate-durbin" target="_blank">Juliana Stratton</a>.</li></ul><p><strong>In the 8th congressional district</strong>, former Rep. Melissa Bean beat progressive rival Junaid Ahmed in the race to succeed Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), another unsuccessful Senate candidate.</p><ul><li>Elect Chicago Women spent $3.3 million in support of Bean while Chicago Progressive Partnership spent another $700,000 painting Ahmed as a wealthy ally of Elon Musk and fossil fuel interests.</li><li>Bean was also supported by ads from Crypto and AI PACs, which — similar to AIPAC's ads — portrayed the centrist ex-lawmaker as a progressive fighter and staunch foe of ICE.</li></ul><p><strong>Zoom out: </strong>This is a significant reversal of fortunes for AIPAC, which suffered an <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/02/06/new-jersey-mejia-election-primary-democrats-left" target="_blank">embarrassing defeat</a> in the special election to fill New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill's seat in the House.</p><ul><li>AIPAC spent more than $2 million attacking former Rep. Tom Malinowski, a liberal Zionist, in support of their candidate, Tahesha Way. That cleared room for <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/02/11/analilia-mejia-hakeem-jeffries-new-jersey" target="_blank">Analilia Mejía</a>, a more decisively progressive, pro-Palestinian candidate, to win. </li><li>The group suffered a similar loss last cycle with the election of Rep. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/11/aipac-southern-california-us-house-race" target="_blank">Dave Min</a> (D-Calif.), who it spent millions opposing.</li><li>Other lawmakers AIPAC supported that cycle, including Reps. Maxine Dexter (D-Ore.) and Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.), have since <a href="https://jewishinsider.com/2025/08/maxine-dexter-valerie-foushee-aipac-democrats-israel-weapons/" target="_blank">broken decisively with them</a> on Israel.</li></ul><p><strong>Yes, but: </strong>AIPAC fell short in the closely watched race to replace retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) in the 9th district.</p><ul><li>It backed staunchly pro-Israel state Sen. Laura Fine, who came in third behind left-wing influencer Kat Abughazaleh and progressive Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss.</li><li>The group spent millions going after Biss at first, but pivoted in the final stretch of the campaign to going primarily after Abughazaleh with ads suggesting she secretly holds right-wing views and boosting a lower tier progressive candidate, Bushra Amiwala.</li></ul><p><strong>They failed </strong>to get their candidate in the 7th district, where Illinois state Rep. La Shawn Ford defeated AIPAC-backed Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin.</p><ul><li>This was the one race where AIPAC spent through its known super PAC, United Democracy Project, which ran nearly $5 million in ads in support of Conyears-Ervin.</li><li>Ford was backed by retiring Rep. Danny Davis (D-Ill.).</li></ul><p><strong>The intrigue: </strong>AIPAC is trying to frame the results in the best possible light, praising Stratton's victory, for instance, despite not spending heavily in support of her.</p><ul><li>AIPAC also tried to reframe several other races in its favor by <a href="https://x.com/AIPAC/status/2034100904400490508?s=20" target="_blank">celebrating the loss</a> of movement leftist candidates like Abughazaleh to more mainstream progressives like Biss.</li></ul><p><strong>The bottom line: </strong>Some progressives scoffed at that, with one senior House progressive stressing to Axios that "AIPAC wanted Daniel Biss to lose. They spent heavily against" him.</p><ul><li>"It seems their spending harmed their candidate because it's so toxic in this politically active district," the lawmaker added, noting Biss was endorsed by the Congressional Progressive Caucus.</li><li>AIPAC's use of progressive talking points to boost their candidates and sink others, this House Democrat said, just "shows that progressive messaging works."</li></ul><p><em>Editor's note: This article has been corrected to show La Shawn Ford is an Illinois state representative (not a former Chicago city council member).</em></p>
<div>Data: AdImpact; Chart: Axios Visuals</div><p>Democrats will learn whether money talks in 2026 in the Illinois Senate primary Tuesday in a race that will almost certainly determine who replaces Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.).</p><p><strong>Why it matters:</strong> Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi is hoping the better-funded candidate emerges victorious in Illinois, just like in Texas this month, when state Rep.<a href="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/03/04/talarico-crockett-democratic-primary-senate-texas" target="_blank"> James Talarico</a> beat Rep. Jasmine Crockett, 52%–46%.</p><hr /><ul><li>Krishnamoorthi has vastly outraised — and outspent — his two primary opponents: Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Rep. Robin Kelly.</li></ul><p><strong>The intrigue:</strong> Two outsized presences have added a layer of intrigue to the race. Fairshake, a crypto PAC, has spent $7.7 million on TV ads, according to AdImpact. The group, which played big in 2024, is sitting on <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/01/28/crypto-coinbase-fairshake-pac" target="_blank">close to $200 million</a>. </p><ul><li>Most of those <a href="https://www.axios.com/local/chicago/2026/03/04/crypto-fairshake-negative-campaign-ads-illinois-stratton-raja-ford" target="_blank">ads have been hammering Stratton</a>, who has the endorsement of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and appears to be the progressives' preferred candidate.</li><li>But Stratton has a super PAC, backed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker, that has spent close to $13 million on her behalf.</li></ul><p><strong>By the numbers:</strong> There's a massive disparity in campaign spending. Krishnamoorthi has spent more than $28 million, according to AdImpact.</p><ul><li>Stratton and Kelly have each spent around $1 million.</li></ul><p><strong>The bottom line:</strong> OpenAI had a <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/03/05/openai-primaries-spending-house-candidates" target="_blank">good night</a> in Texas and North Carolina on the opening night of the 2026 primaries, going three for three in House races.</p><ul><li>Now Fairshake is on deck. </li></ul>
<img src="https://www.theblaze.com/media-library/image.jpg?id=65323860&width=1245&height=700&coordinates=0%2C0%2C0%2C0" /><br /><br /><p>A major political shake-up unfolded in Illinois as progressives whose views align with those of "the Squad" were dealt a decisive blow in recent Democratic primaries.</p><p>According to BlazeTV host Stu Burguiere, the losses highlight growing fractures within the Democratic Party, particularly between establishment figures and the party’s far-left flank associated with the likes of Jasmine Crockett, Ilhan Omar, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.</p><p>“What we saw in Illinois was a situation where you’ve got obviously a bright, bright, bright blue state, right? This is the bluest of the blue basically where, you know, you can kind of do whatever you want if you’re a Democrat,” Stu begins.</p><p>“So, you have these factions of the Democratic Party warring with each other. They’re fighting, they’re going back and forth trying to take control. Of course, one of the big groups that is trying to do that is the sort of Squad left,” he continues.</p><h3></h3><br /><span class="rm-shortcode" style="display: block; padding-top: 56.25%;"></span><p>“The Squad left,” Stu explains, is the “AOC left.”</p><p>“Someone who’s very, very socialist leaning, very, very anti-Israel, very, you know, pro-abortion and trans, everything as far as you can go,” he says.</p><p>“And they had a play here in Illinois. They had a chance to do something. They had a chance to move the needle a little bit, and it did not work,” he says, referencing an <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/03/18/the-squad-left-suffers-complete-wipeout-in-illinois" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><u>article</u></a> by Axios titled, “The ‘Squad’ left suffers complete wipeout in Illinois.”</p><p>“The left suffered a virtually total collapse in the Illinois Democratic congressional primaries on Tuesday night — even in races where the AIPAC-backed candidate lost,” the article reads.</p><p>“It’s a bad sign for the dozens of insurgent Democrats running in congressional races across the country, both in open seats and as primary rivals to older or more establishment-oriented incumbents,” it continues.</p><p>“AIPAC is like, I don’t know, they’re supposedly the ultimate villains of all the world right now because, you know, a lot of people even on the right, certainly plenty on the left, are blaming them for pushing us into war with Iran and, you know, all sorts of different things,” Stu explains.</p><p>Stu notes that AIPAC was “very excited” about Illinois’ results, as “they put a lot of money into these races to try to stop very hardcore anti-Israel candidates from winning those primaries.”</p><h2>Want more from Stu?</h2><p>To enjoy more of Stu's lethal wit, wisdom, and mockery, <a href="https://get.blazetv.com/stu-does-america/?utm_source=theblaze&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=article_shortcode_stuburguiere" target="_blank">subscribe to BlazeTV</a> — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution, and live the American dream.</p>
Tensions over AIPAC’s influence in the Democratic Party, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker’s fundraising power and generational fights will be in the spotlight.
The group has taken a sharp tactical shift in several House races as it weathers Democrats’ souring views of Israel — and of AIPAC itself.