Voters discuss the economy in a community conversation on a park bench.Trump Admits 'Very Bad Job' Selling Strong Economy to Voters
Intra-Party Split Detected
Some Republican voters and candidates are breaking from Trump, criticizing his handling of the economy, Iran war, and messaging, with one GOP voter calling for his resignation and some midterm candidates distancing themselves from him.
Left says
- •Wages for typical workers have failed to keep pace with inflation for five straight months, reversing earlier gains and squeezing household budgets.
- •Consumer prices have risen more than 5% since Trump took office, compounding costs built up during the Biden years, with gas prices up over a dollar a gallon from last year.
- •Mortgage rates above 7% and elevated borrowing costs for cars and credit cards are making everyday financial decisions harder for families, regardless of GDP headlines.
- •Voters in battleground districts describe frustration not just over prices but over the administration's handling of issues like the Iran war, suggesting the economic discontent is part of a broader dissatisfaction with Trump's leadership.
Right says
- •The underlying economy is performing strongly, with GDP growth tracking around 5% this quarter and unemployment holding at a historically low 4.1%.
- •Consumer spending and retail sales have remained robust throughout the administration, reflecting the benefits of tax cuts, job creation, and investment growth.
- •The disconnect between strong economic data and sour public sentiment is a messaging and communication problem, not a sign of genuine economic failure.
- •Some Republican candidates are choosing to campaign on their own records rather than lean entirely on the White House's economic narrative, showing the party is adapting rather than ignoring voter concerns.
Common Take
High Consensus- Consumer sentiment is near record lows despite strong headline economic growth numbers.
- Inflation and borrowing costs, including mortgage rates above 7%, are weighing heavily on household finances.
- There is a real gap between official economic statistics and how voters are experiencing their day-to-day financial lives.
- Economic conditions are likely to be a major factor shaping voter decisions in the upcoming midterms.
The Arguments
Left argues
Real wages have failed to keep up with inflation for five consecutive months, meaning actual household purchasing power is shrinking even as headline GDP figures look strong.
Right counters
Aggregate GDP growth near 5% and unemployment at 4.1% show the economy is fundamentally sound, and strong consumer spending and retail sales data indicate households are still participating robustly in that growth despite short-term wage lags.
Right argues
The hard data—GDP growth, low unemployment, and resilient consumer spending—demonstrate the economy is genuinely strong, and the gap with public sentiment is a communication failure rather than evidence of real economic distress.
Left counters
If consumer sentiment is near record lows and voters across the political spectrum report pocketbook pain from gas, groceries, and borrowing costs, that lived experience is the economy as people actually encounter it, not a perception problem to be fixed with better messaging.
Left argues
Mortgage rates above 7% and elevated costs for cars and credit cards are concretely raising the cost of major life decisions for families, a burden that GDP statistics don't capture.
Right counters
Higher borrowing costs are partly a byproduct of the economy's own strength and the Federal Reserve's response to robust growth, meaning the pain voters feel is linked to success elsewhere in the economy, not to policy failure.
Right argues
Some GOP candidates are strategically campaigning on their own local records rather than the White House's economic narrative, showing adaptability and responsiveness to voter concerns rather than denial of the problem.
Left counters
Candidates distancing themselves from the administration's economic message is itself evidence that Republicans recognize the economic narrative isn't working and that voter frustration with Trump's record is real and politically costly.
Left argues
Voter frustration extends beyond prices to dissatisfaction with the handling of issues like the Iran war, suggesting the economic discontent is part of a broader erosion of confidence in Trump's leadership rather than an isolated messaging gap.
Right counters
Conflating foreign policy disapproval with economic assessment overstates the case against a strong economy; voters can hold complex, mixed views on different issues without that undermining the objective strength of growth and job creation.
Challenge Questions
These questions target genuine internal contradictions — meant to provoke honest reflection.
Right asks Left
“If wages have actually outpaced inflation cumulatively since 2021, why should five recent months of lag be treated as proof of fundamental economic failure rather than a short-term fluctuation within a longer positive trend?”
Left asks Right
“If the administration itself concedes it has done a 'very bad job' explaining the economy, doesn't that undercut the claim that sentiment is merely a communication problem rather than a signal that the underlying data isn't matching people's real experience?”
Outlier Report
Left Fringe
Figures like Robert Reich or some progressive commentators who frame this as evidence of full-blown economic collapse or deliberate corporate price-gouging represent maybe 15-20% of the left, more pessimistic than the median Democrat who simply feels squeezed by prices.
Right Fringe
Pundits like Stephen Moore or some White House allies insisting sentiment data itself is flawed or politically biased, dismissing voter complaints entirely, represent perhaps 15-20% of the right; most Republicans acknowledge affordability concerns even while touting growth figures.
Noise Assessment
Significant amplification from partisan media on both sides, but the core sentiment data (University of Michigan, Conference Board) reflects real, broad-based consumer anxiety that cuts across party lines.
Sources (6)
<img src="https://images.axios.com/4wYKBmrzOi5CnFPQXCv0iZBKP9s=/2025/04/09/202918-1744230558510.jpg" /> <div>Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios</div><p>Five weeks before the midterms, Americans' pocketbook pain is getting worse: paychecks haven't kept up with inflation for the better part of this year, and borrowing costs have surged.</p><p><strong>Why it matters: </strong>President Trump's record is effectively on the ballot, and economic sentiment remains deeply depressed, including among Republican voters.</p><hr /><p><strong>This is the backdrop </strong>as voters prepare to cast their midterm ballots: </p><p>1. In the last five months, pay for rank-and-file workers has trailed inflation.</p><ul><li>That's a recent reversal: Since the start of 2021, hourly pay for rank-and-file workers has climbed 29%, slightly outpacing the 27% gain in consumer prices.</li></ul><p>2. Consumer prices are up over 5% since Trump took office, piling on Biden-era gains.</p><ul><li>It costs about $20 more to fill a 15-gallon tank of gas than it did a year ago. The national average for regular gas is $4.48 a gallon, up $1.34 from last September, according to AAA. </li></ul><p>3. Mortgage rates are back above 7%, while rates on credit cards, auto and other loans remain elevated.</p><p><strong>Zoom out:</strong> Consumer sentiment is sitting at the second-lowest reading on record, according to the University of Michigan's tracker. </p><ul><li>Contrast that to Trump's first term: Before the pandemic, the same survey showed one of the strongest periods ever for America's consumer sentiment.</li><li>Another gauge shows a similar decline: The Conference Board's confidence index averaged 126 from 2017-2019, compared with just 89.4 in August, the latest reading.</li></ul><p><strong>The other side:</strong> The lousy sentiment comes alongside strong economic growth that's apparent in the GDP figures — but hard for consumers to appreciate at the grocery store or the gas pump.</p><ul><li>A closely watched GDP tracker published by the Atlanta Fed shows the economy growing at a blistering 5% pace this quarter. </li><li>And unemployment remains a historically low 4.1%. </li></ul><p><strong>Friction point: </strong>Paradoxically, the economic strength Trump wanted is contributing to the affordability concerns weighing on his approval ratings.</p><ul><li>A hotter economy strengthens the case for further Federal Reserve rate hikes and intensifies competition for capital, helping feed the sharp rise in long-term rates that underpin household borrowing costs.</li><li>The AI boom is also contributing to job anxiety. Over a quarter of U.S. workers now worry technology could make their jobs obsolete, <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/714368/workers-fear-losing-jobs-technology.aspx" target="_blank">according to Gallup</a> — a record high.</li></ul><p><strong>What they're saying:</strong> "The hard data of actual consumer spending and retail sales have been robust throughout President Trump's term so far," White House spokesman Kush Desai says. "American consumers are proving their resilience with their dollars every day thanks to the Trump administration's tax cuts, private-sector job creation, and investment boom."</p><p><strong>The bottom line: </strong>President Trump has the growth boom he wanted, but not the sentiment uplift that usually comes with it.</p>
Senior National Politics Reporter Jonathan Allen joins Meet the Press NOW to discuss his conversations with frustrated voters on the ground in Iowa and Ohio ahead of the midterms in his Drive to Decision Day series.
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The annual inflation rate of 3.4 percent reported in August 2026 sounds manageable, especially compared to the pandemic-era peak of 9 percent. But a closer look reveals that the day-to-day cost of living is far more troubling.