Trump's Russia Diesel Deal Splits GOP, Enrages Zelensky

<p>President Trump is turning to Vladimir Putin to help ease a global <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/10/09/trump-putin-diesel-agreement-ukraine-war" target="_blank">diesel</a> crunch, setting up a clash between Washington's <a href="https://www.axios.com/energy-climate" target="_blank">energy</a> priorities and its efforts to pressure Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.</p><p><strong>Why it matters: </strong>The fuel shortage is among the most severe effects of the Iran war and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.</p><hr /><ul><li>Average U.S. diesel prices remain far above $6 per gallon, adding to GOP headwinds in the midterm elections. Trump says his deal will help bring costs down.</li></ul><p><strong>Catch up quick:</strong> Trump on Friday <a href="https://truthsocial.com/%40realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143" target="_blank">claimed</a> an agreement to bring escalating Russian exports, and the Treasury Department <a href="https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/937216/download" target="_blank">waived</a> sanctions to help enable it. </p><p><strong><em>A few things to watch...</em></strong></p><p><strong>The campaign trail. </strong>So far a few Republicans in <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/10/06/midterm-election-energy-costs" target="_blank">close races</a> — including Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers and Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan — have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/10/us/politics/republicans-midterms-trump-diesel-russia.html" target="_blank">criticized</a> the agreement. </p><ul><li>Republicans already saddled with Trump's unpopular policies in the midterms now face another awkward choice: whether to back his diesel deal with a dictator many of them despise, Axios' Andrew Pantazi <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/10/12/trump-russia-diesel-deal-republicans-midterms" target="_blank">writes.</a></li></ul><p><strong>The market.</strong> Diesel futures <a href="https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/HOX26%3ANYMEX?window=5D" target="_blank">dipped</a> after the announcement. But analysts expressed doubt that the levels Trump is claiming will meaningfully sway prices in the U.S. and elsewhere — if Russia indeed delivers. </p><ul><li>Per Trump's claim, Russia will "immediately" provide what amounts to 2.24 million barrels, followed 3.73 million next month (equivalent to around 124,000 barrels per day spread over a month), and then roughly double it thereafter. </li><li>"In the near-term, it's hard to see the waiver helping global fundamentals for diesel much," <a href="https://weaponizedeconomy.substack.com/p/state-of-the-energy-markets-diesel" target="_blank">writes</a> economics and geopolitics analyst Rachel Ziemba.</li><li>The global market currently has a deficit of about 1 million barrels per day, per market intel firm Kpler, and "Russia's ability to deliver additional barrels remains uncertain," <a href="https://www.kpler.com/blog/russia-to-the-rescue-not-with-these-freight-rates" target="_blank">writes</a> Kpler's Michelle Brouhard. </li></ul><p><strong>Capitol Hill.</strong> Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), one of those lawmakers in a close reelection fight, will <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/10/10/fitzpatrick-trump-russia-diesel-discharge-petition" target="_blank">try and force</a> a House vote to block Russian oil purchases.</p><p><strong>The law.</strong> It's not clear if any Russian barrels will reach U.S. shores — or whether it's legal if they do.</p><ul><li>A bipartisan group of seven senators, in a <a href="https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/dem/release/ranking-member-shaheen-and-6-bipartisan-senatorsstatement-on-legality-of-imports-of-russian-diesel-fuel" target="_blank">statement</a>, say the decision runs afoul of a 2022 law barring U.S. imports of Russian oil and petroleum products. Treasury's Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence <a href="https://x.com/UnderSecTFI/status/2109076526557774008" target="_blank">said</a> it is acting "in compliance with all applicable laws." </li><li>Meanwhile, the White House faces an Oct. 18 deadline to begin implementing a more recent law — named after the late Sen. Lindsey Graham — that imposes fresh sanctions on Russia and trade penalties on buyers of Russian energy. But the law gives the White House discretion to waive key provisions.</li></ul><p><strong>Ukraine. </strong>Trump is pushing Ukraine and Russia to ease attacks on energy infrastructure. </p><ul><li>Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has criticized Trump's deal, said Russia has continued its barrages even as he <a href="https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/2109654238380908962" target="_blank">maintained</a> Ukraine <a href="https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/2109938658576887917" target="_blank">held back</a> early this week. </li></ul><p><em>Sign up <a href="https://www.axios.com/signup/axios-future-of-energy" target="_blank">here</a> for Axios' Future of Energy newsletter.</em></p>

<p>President Trump called Saturday for Ukraine to replace President Volodymyr Zelensky with someone willing to make a deal with Russia to end the war. </p><p><strong>Why it matters:</strong> Trump's attack on Zelensky came after the Ukrainian president criticized his <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/10/10/trump-zelensky-putin-diesel-deal-war" target="_blank">diesel deal with Russia</a> and signals the most serious crisis between the two leaders since their February 2025 meeting exploded in front of cameras.</p><hr /><p><strong>Driving the news:</strong> Trump announced Friday he had reached a deal with Russia to lift sanctions to allow Russian diesel exports to the U.S. and the global energy market.</p><ul><li>Zelensky, who was surprised by the deal made behind Ukraine's back, attacked the move and <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/10/09/exclusive-zelensky-putin-trump-diesel-deal" target="_blank">told Axios</a> it was "not fair and not honest" and was a "sign of weakness" by Trump and a "birthday gift" to Putin. </li><li>A U.S. official <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/10/10/trump-zelensky-putin-diesel-deal-war" target="_blank">told Axios</a> later that Trump struck the diesel fuel deal after Zelensky ignored half a dozen U.S. requests to stop attacking Russian oil refineries.</li></ul><p><strong>What he is saying:</strong> Trump said Zelensky could have reached a deal with Russia many times "but chooses not to."</p><ul><li>"I suggest they get a new leader who can make a deal," Trump told reporters Saturday. "… And I think it's time for Ukraine to get a new president." </li><li>He said he asked Zelensky to stop attacking Russian oil refineries and claimed Zelensky's actions harmed American farmers. </li><li>"He better damn well stop," Trump said.</li></ul>

<p>Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Axios in a phone interview on Friday that President Trump's decision to unilaterally lift sanctions on <a href="https://www.axios.com/world/russia" target="_blank">Russia</a> and allow it to export diesel was "not fair and not honest."</p><ul><li>"You know, it looks like a happy birthday present for Putin. It looks absolutely terrible," Zelensky said in frustration, referring to the Russian president's birthday earlier this week. </li></ul><p><strong>Why it matters:</strong> Trump's announcement, which came after a call with Putin, shocked Ukraine and many European governments and created a new crisis between the U.S. and its Western allies. </p><hr /><ul><li>During the 15-minute interview, Zelensky sounded exasperated and dismayed and even expressed a sense of betrayal by the news of the diesel deal. </li><li>Trump was asked several times by reporters on Friday about Zelensky's criticism but declined to comment and said he was happy about the deal with Putin.</li></ul><p><strong>Driving the news:</strong> Trump announced the deal with Putin as his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were meeting in Miami with the Ukrainian negotiating team along with senior diplomats from Germany, France, the U.K., the EU and NATO to discuss new U.S. ideas for ending the war. </p><ul><li>Zelensky said he spoke several days ago with Witkoff about the need to continue efforts to reach a diplomatic breakthrough before winter and the midterm elections. </li><li>"Steve proposed to meet in Florida. And of course I accepted to go there and speak about the possibilities of negotiations. The Americans said they have some ideas and we agreed to come to discuss," Zelensky said. </li><li>At no point during his talks with Witkoff and Kushner did the U.S. suggest that a diesel deal with Russia was on the table, Zelensky stressed. </li><li>He said he understood from Witkoff that the U.S. envoys planned to take messages from the Florida talks to the Russians and then potentially travel to Kyiv to try to seal a peace deal.</li></ul><p><strong>Behind the scenes:</strong> Zelensky said that an hour before Trump's statement, his negotiators, who were meeting with Kushner and Witkoff in Florida, informed him that Trump planned to speak with Putin. They said an announcement regarding U.S. sanctions on Russia might be forthcoming, without elaborating. </p><ul><li>"It's not honest, really, because we tried to build our relations in the best way," he said. "It looks like that they used this opportunity to meet us from one side, and from the other side called Putin and negotiate this."</li></ul><p><strong>What he's saying: </strong>The Ukrainian president said he would have supported easing sanctions on Russian energy if it was done in the context of a deal to halt attacks on energy facilities in Ukraine and Russia during the winter.</p><ul><li>"If the price is energy ceasefire, this negotiation is good," Zelensky said. But he argued that Trump presumably would have announced such a breakthrough if Putin had agreed to it.</li><li>"What did [Trump] get? That he will have more diesel? For whom? More Russian diesel for Americans? It shows weakness of the world," Zelensky said.</li><li>Zelensky compared the current deal to the Anchorage summit between Trump and Putin last year, which ended with the U.S. president agreeing to many of the Russian demands regarding the war in Ukraine without getting anything in return. </li><li>"It looks like Alaska No. 2," he said.</li></ul><p><strong>Between the lines: </strong>Despite his anger, Zelensky stopped short of saying the episode meant Washington could no longer mediate between Kyiv and Moscow.</p><ul><li>"It's not simple. We need the Americans," he said. "We need the Americans to try to stop this war."</li><li>But he questioned whether rewarding Moscow without an apparent Russian concession would make further diplomacy more difficult.</li><li>"This decision will not help us in any way," Zelensky said. "But what is bad, I think that this decision will not help Americans."</li></ul><p><strong>What's next: </strong>Zelensky said he plans to speak with his negotiating team to get a full readout of its talks with Witkoff and Kushner.</p><ul><li>Zelensky said he also wanted to understand whether the diesel agreement was connected to a trip Trump's envoys planned to take to Russia.</li><li>"If you allow them to export diesel, and you think before that you have to go to Russia to negotiate, it looks that you are buying this meeting," Zelensky said, while stressing that he did not know whether that was actually Trump's intention.</li><li>"Maybe I'm not right," Zelensky said. "But it looks this way. Otherwise, why do it?"</li></ul>

<p>President Trump announced Friday that he's reached a deal with Russia to increase the supply of diesel to the U.S. and global markets — angering Ukraine, which called it a gift to Vladimir <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/09/23/trump-putin-us-miami-g20-summit-invite-rubio" target="_blank">Putin</a> in the midst of their war.</p><p><strong>Why it matters:</strong> The announcement, which includes a waiver on some U.S. energy sanctions against Russia, took place as<a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/10/08/ukraine-russia-war-kushner-witkoff-negotiations-winter" target="_blank"> Ukrainian and European diplomats</a> arrived in Miami for talks on ending the war with Russia. </p><hr /><p><strong>What he's saying:</strong> "I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter," Trump <a href="https://truthsocial.com/%40realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143" target="_blank">wrote</a> on Truth Social.</p><ul><li>Trump added that Russia will deliver," within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel."</li><li>Combine with oil coming out of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump wrote, "Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!"</li><li>"Today, at President Trump's direction, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is immediately issuing a temporary general license to allow the supply of Russian diesel to the global market," the Treasury Department said in a statement.</li></ul><p><strong>Friction point: </strong>Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded angrily to Trump's announcement, writing on X that any sanctions relief for Russia outside of a "lasting de-escalation agreement ... is an obvious weakness."</p><ul><li>"Gifts to Putin will not bring peace or any benefit to the civilized world. Russia will repay the diesel with further terror and perfidy. Allowing Russia to sell petroleum products is an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged. What is needed is real de-escalation with Russia on a reciprocal basis," Zelensky wrote.</li><li>Zelensky added that Ukraine told Trump's envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff that it is "ready to take symmetrical de-escalatory steps" with Russia.</li><li>"Ukraine will not set Russian oil refineries on fire if Russia does not destroy our energy infrastructure. This is the kind of agreement we are proposing to America, and we believe the U.S. has enough power to achieve such a compromise," he said.</li></ul><p><strong>The other side:</strong> The Kremlin said in a statement that during Putin's call with Trump, "significant attention was devoted to prospects for resolving the Ukraine crisis." </p><ul><li>The Kremlin said the two leaders discussed the situation in global energy markets. "The Russian side confirmed its readiness to supply oil and petroleum products to the U.S. and global markets. I am confident that this will have a positive impact on the global economy as a whole," Putin said during the call, according to the Kremlin.</li><li>Putin special envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who worked on the deal, wrote on X that "Russia-US energy and economic cooperation will continue and benefit global markets and the world."</li></ul><p><strong>By the numbers: </strong>Ukrainian strikes cut Russia's available refining capacity by as much as 60% over the summer, though the effect varies month to month, per an <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/1008" target="_blank">analysis</a> by two Dallas Fed researchers this week.</p><ul><li>Through a combination of Middle East refinery outages, shipping constraints, damaged Russian refineries and curtailed Chinese refining, the global fuels market has seen reduction of as much as 6 million to 8 million barrels per day of capacity since late spring, or up to 10% of global refining.</li></ul><p><strong>What they're saying:</strong> "Putin and others are trying to opportunistically shift blame for high diesel prices onto Ukraine, rather than the U.S.-Israel-Iran war devastating global supply chains," said Joseph Webster, an energy and geopolitics analyst with the Atlantic Council, a nonpartisan think tank.</p><ul><li>"These putative Russian export volumes are not only uncertain to materialize but are small in volume and wouldn't address the global diesel shortage," he said via email.</li></ul><p><em><strong>Ben Geman contributed to this report. </strong></em></p>

Zelenskyy said an energy ceasefire and steps to de-escalate the conflict are “truly needed” and not just on “Truth Social,” in response to Trump’s Sunday announcement.

Xerxes only built one bridge leading to his defeat. Trump keeps building new bridges to Russia after every negotiating defeat at Putin's hands.

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) on Wednesday expressed his support for President Trump’s recent push for an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, but he also slammed Russian President Vladimir Putin over Russia’s apparent betrayal of the claimed ceasefire. “President Trump did the right thing by trying to force an energy ceasefire. You have to *try*.&#8230;

Advancing American Freedom, a conservative think tank founded by former Vice President Pence, is calling on the Trump administration not to allow Russia to ship unsanctioned diesel to the U.S., according to a letter obtained by The Hill. The GOP group joins some Senate Republicans and others who have pushed back on the diesel deal. &#8230;