Trump speaks on stage at the RNC 2024 convention before a large crowd.Vulnerable Republicans Skip Trump's Own Midterm Convention
Intra-Party Split Detected
Some vulnerable Republican candidates in competitive races, such as Susan Collins and John Sununu, are avoiding the Trump-centric convention, while others worry about being too closely tied to Trump's lower approval ratings ahead of the midterms.
Left says
- •Candidates in the most competitive districts, like Susan Collins and John Sununu, are calculating that public proximity to Trump is a liability given his approval rating sitting in the 30s in several recent polls.
- •Democrats are poised to use footage and photos from the convention to tie any attending Republican directly to Trump's agenda, regardless of what he says on stage.
- •The absence of Senate Majority Leader John Thune from the speaker list highlights real friction within the party, since Trump has publicly attacked him over election security legislation.
- •The event's stated purpose of firing up base turnout, rather than persuading swing voters, reflects Republican strategists' concern that Trump voters are less energized than in 2024.
Right says
- •This is the first-ever midterm national convention, an innovative effort to build momentum and unify the party less than 60 days before the election.
- •Roughly 100 Republican lawmakers and candidates, including vulnerable incumbents like Mike Lawler, Rob Bresnahan, and Ryan Mackenzie, are showing up to speak or attend, undercutting any narrative of a mass boycott.
- •The convention is designed to showcase candidates, celebrate nominees, and contrast Republican priorities against what organizers describe as far-outside-the-mainstream Democratic positions.
- •Scheduling conflicts, like Thune's fundraising trip to Dallas, explain some absences better than any suggestion of party discord, and organizers note the speaker list is still being finalized.
Common Take
High Consensus- Trump will deliver a keynote address on night one and closing remarks on night two, with Vance keynoting night two.
- Several Republicans in the toughest races, including Susan Collins and John Sununu, are not attending the convention.
- The event is the first-ever RNC midterm convention, taking place September 9-10 in Dallas.
- Attendance carries political tradeoffs for vulnerable candidates, balancing base mobilization against the risk of being tied to Trump's approval numbers.
The Arguments
Left argues
The most vulnerable Republicans, like Susan Collins and John Sununu, are conspicuously absent, signaling their own campaigns judge proximity to Trump to be a net negative given his approval rating in the 30s.
Right counters
Roughly 100 Republican lawmakers and candidates, including plenty of frontline members like Mike Lawler, Rob Bresnahan, and Ryan Mackenzie, are attending or speaking, which undercuts the idea of a broad strategic retreat from Trump.
Right argues
This is a genuinely novel event, the first midterm national convention, designed to unify the party, showcase candidates, and generate fundraising and media momentum less than 60 days before the election.
Left counters
The event's own stated goal, firing up base turnout rather than persuading swing voters, is itself an admission that Republican strategists are worried about an enthusiasm gap among Trump's own supporters.
Left argues
Thune's absence from the speaker list is notable given Trump's public attacks on him over election security legislation, suggesting real friction inside Republican leadership that the party would rather not showcase on stage.
Right counters
Thune has a scheduled fundraising trip to Dallas that same week, and organizers say the list is still being finalized, which is a far more mundane explanation than orchestrated snubbing.
Right argues
The convention is a legitimate campaign tool meant to contrast Republican priorities against Democratic positions organizers describe as far outside the mainstream, giving candidates a national platform to define the race on their own terms.
Left counters
Regardless of the messaging on stage, Democrats will use footage and photos from the event to tie every attending Republican directly to Trump's agenda and low approval numbers, which is precisely the risk that kept Collins and Sununu away.
Left argues
Democrats can point to the very existence of a boycott-by-omission among top-tier vulnerable Republicans as evidence that even the party's own candidates see Trump as an electoral liability in swing states.
Right counters
A handful of absences driven by individual scheduling and risk calculations in a handful of races doesn't establish a party-wide consensus, especially when the bulk of frontline House members chose to show up and speak.
Challenge Questions
These questions target genuine internal contradictions — meant to provoke honest reflection.
Right asks Left
“If nearly 100 Republican lawmakers and candidates, including several frontline House members, are attending or speaking, what evidence beyond a few high-profile absences supports characterizing this as a broad Republican retreat from Trump rather than a handful of individualized campaign decisions?”
Left asks Right
“If the convention's stated purpose is to fire up base turnout because strategists worry Trump voters are less energized than in 2024, doesn't that concede the very enthusiasm problem the event is supposedly designed to solve, and what does that imply about the strength of Trump's coattails in these midterms?”
Outlier Report
Left Fringe
Commentators like those at MeidasTouch or Democratic strategists who frame this as proof of total GOP collapse and a guaranteed 2026 wave represent maybe 15-20% of the left, overstating the significance of a scheduling story.
Right Fringe
Pro-Trump commentators like Benny Johnson or Charlie Kirk-aligned voices (before his passing referenced in convention programming) who would dismiss any absence as media-manufactured non-story represent roughly 15-20% of the right, ignoring genuine strategic distancing by some candidates.
Noise Assessment
Moderate; the actual event (a party convention with routine scheduling conflicts and strategic calculations) is being amplified by both sides into either a 'Trump is toxic' or 'Republicans are unified' narrative, when reality is a mixed, unremarkable political calculation.
Sources (6)
<p>President Trump and his top allies will share the stage with Republican candidates in some of the nation's most competitive races at next week's GOP midterm convention in Dallas, according to a preliminary list of speakers obtained by Axios.</p><p><strong>Why it matters:</strong> The lineup underscores a central purpose of the convention: firing up Trump voters and getting them to turn out in November, even though the president isn't on the ballot.</p><p><strong>Driving the news:</strong> Trump will speak both nights of the Sept. 9-10 convention, while Vice President Vance will deliver a keynote address on the second night.</p><ul><li>The lineup also includes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., former White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt and Donald Trump Jr.</li><li>House Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott are among the congressional leaders who will appear.</li><li>One name that is notably absent from the list is Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who Trump has attacked for not doing more to pass election security legislation. But Thune is scheduled to be in Dallas next week for fundraising, and organizers say they are still adding names to the list.</li><li>Republicans in some of the toughest races aren't attending, including Sen. Susan Collins in Maine and former Sen. John Sununu in New Hampshire.</li></ul><p><strong>Zoom out:</strong> Republicans will use the convention to mobilize Trump voters, who party strategists worry will be less inclined to turn out than they were two years ago.</p><ul><li>Much of the two-day event will be focused on <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/08/07/gop-midterm-convention-gameplan" target="_blank">branding</a> Democrats as far-outside-the-mainstream socialists.</li></ul><p><strong>Zoom in:</strong> The convention will put Trump onstage alongside Republicans running in many of the races that will determine control of Congress.</p><ul><li>Senate candidates include Ohio Sen. Jon Husted, Texas Republican Ken Paxton, Michigan Republican Mike Rogers, North Carolina Republican Michael Whatley and Georgia Rep. Mike Collins. Trump won all five states in 2024, though all of them are competitive this year.</li><li>On the House side, New York Rep. Mike Lawler and Pennsylvania Reps. Rob Bresnahan and Ryan Mackenzie are among the vulnerable incumbents slated to speak, along with Wisconsin Rep. Derrick Van Orden.</li><li>Lawler is the only House candidate on the roster running in a district Kamala Harris carried in 2024.</li></ul><p><strong>Yes, but:</strong> Appearing at the convention isn't without risk for Republicans in tight races.</p><ul><li>Democrats are likely to portray them as closely aligned with Trump, whose approval rating was in the 30s in several recent polls.</li></ul><p><strong>By the numbers:</strong> About <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/09/03/vulnerable-republicans-get-a-25k-convention-pass" target="_blank">100 Republican lawmakers</a> and candidates are expected to attend the convention, either as speakers or in the audience. A number of non-politicians will also address the convention.</p><p><strong>Here is the list of speakers:</strong></p><p><em>Keynote Speakers</em></p><ul><li>President Trump, Night One Keynote Address and Night Two Closing Remarks</li><li>Vice President Vance, Night Two Keynote Address</li><li>Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent</li><li>Attorney General Todd Blanche</li><li>HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.</li><li>Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator Mehmet Oz</li><li>HUD Secretary Scott Turner</li><li>Former press secretary Karoline Leavitt</li><li>Donald Trump Jr.</li></ul><p><em>Republican Leadership</em></p><ul><li>Speaker Mike Johnson</li><li>Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso</li><li>Senator Tim Scott, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman</li><li>House Majority Leader Steve Scalise</li><li>House Majority Whip Tom Emmer</li><li>House Republican Conference Chair Lisa McClain</li><li>NRCC Chair Richard Hudson</li><li>Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters</li></ul><p><em>Elected Officials</em></p><ul><li>Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas)</li><li>Sen. Jon Husted (Ohio)</li><li>Sen. Dave McCormick (Pa.)</li><li>Gov. Greg Abbott (Texas)</li><li>Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick</li><li>Texas Attorney General and Senate candidate Ken Paxton</li><li>Rep. Rob Bresnahan (Pa.)</li><li>Georgia Senate candidate Rep. Mike Collins </li><li>Rep. Monica De La Cruz (Texas)</li><li>Florida governor candidate Rep. Byron Donalds</li><li>Rep. Brandon Gill (Texas)</li><li>Rep. Brian Jack (Ga.)</li><li>Rep. Mike Lawler (N.Y.)</li><li>Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (Fla.)</li><li>Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (Pa.)</li><li>Rep. Jason Smith (Mo.)</li><li>Rep. Derrick Van Orden (Wis.)</li><li>Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson</li></ul><p><em>Candidates</em></p><ul><li>Captain Mike Bouchard Jr., Candidate for U.S. House (MI-10)</li><li>Laurie Buckhout, Candidate for U.S. House (NC-01)</li><li>Greg Cunningham, Candidate for U.S. House (NM-02)</li><li>Jay Feely, Candidate for U.S. House (AZ-01)</li><li>Eric Flores, Candidate for U.S. House (TX-34)</li><li>Carlos De La Cruz, Candidate for U.S. House (TX-35)</li><li>Mike LiPetri, Candidate for U.S. House (NY-03)</li><li>Derek Merrin, Candidate for U.S. House (OH-09)</li><li>Marty O'Donnell, Candidate for U.S. House (NV-03)</li><li>Mike Rogers, Candidate for U.S. Senate (MI)</li><li>Tano Tijerina, Candidate for U.S. House (TX-28)</li><li>Michael Whatley, Candidate for U.S. Senate (NC)</li></ul>
“I can't control what the president's going to say at the convention, but I can control where I'm at,” one battleground member said.
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