Democrats Near Power to Bypass Electoral College by 2028
Intra-Party Split Detected
Some Democratic governors and lawmakers have hesitated or blocked the compact in the past (e.g., Nevada's governor vetoed it in 2019, Michigan failed to pass it despite a trifecta), citing concerns about reduced state influence, even as national party figures favor it.
Left says
- •A national popular vote ensures every American's vote counts equally, regardless of which state they live in, eliminating the distortion where a handful of swing states decide the presidency.
- •The compact uses a lawful constitutional mechanism, states' explicit power to direct how their electors are appointed, rather than requiring a constitutional amendment that could be blocked by a minority of states.
- •Candidates would be forced to campaign everywhere rather than ignoring the roughly 40 states treated as safe for one party, strengthening engagement nationwide.
- •This reform has been building for nearly two decades through democratic legislative processes in dozens of states, not through any sudden or secretive maneuver.
Right says
- •The compact risks diminishing smaller and mid-sized states' influence over presidential elections, effectively letting densely populated urban centers decide outcomes for the entire country.
- •Legal scholars argue the agreement likely violates the Constitution's Compact Clause, which requires congressional consent for interstate agreements of this kind.
- •The Founders deliberately built the Electoral College into the Constitution as a check on pure majoritarian rule, and changing it should go through the formal amendment process, not a legislative workaround.
- •Even some Democratic governors, including in Nevada, have hesitated or rejected joining the compact, recognizing it could reduce their own state's leverage in close elections.
Common Take
High Consensus- The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact has been enacted by 18 states and Washington, D.C., representing 222 electoral votes so far.
- The compact only takes effect once member states collectively hold at least 270 electoral votes.
- Recent Democratic trifecta wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada could push the total to 283 electoral votes if those states join.
- Whether the compact actually takes effect depends on legislative action that has not yet occurred in these states, and its constitutionality remains legally untested.
The Arguments
Left argues
A national popular vote ensures every American's vote counts equally regardless of their state, eliminating a system where a handful of swing states effectively decide the presidency while 40 states are ignored.
Right counters
This framing ignores that the Electoral College was designed precisely to prevent densely populated urban centers from dominating national elections at the expense of smaller and rural states, and the compact would recreate that imbalance in reverse.
Right argues
Legal scholars argue the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact likely violates the Constitution's Compact Clause, which requires congressional consent for interstate agreements that affect the balance of federal power.
Left counters
States have the explicit constitutional authority to direct how their electors are appointed, and similar interstate compacts have operated without congressional approval; whether this specific compact requires consent remains legally unsettled, not settled against it.
Right argues
The Founders deliberately built the Electoral College into the Constitution as a structural check on pure majoritarian rule, and a change this fundamental should go through the formal amendment process rather than a legislative workaround designed to sidestep that higher bar.
Left counters
The amendment process can be blocked by a small minority of states representing a fraction of the population, so relying on it exclusively would let a tiny bloc veto a reform most Americans consistently support in polling.
Left argues
Candidates would be forced to campaign everywhere rather than ignoring the roughly 40 states treated as safe for one party, which would strengthen voter engagement and civic participation nationwide.
Right counters
In practice, a popular-vote system would likely shift campaign focus toward high-density urban media markets rather than genuinely spreading attention evenly, simply trading one set of ignored states for another.
Right argues
Even Democratic governors, including in Nevada, have hesitated or rejected joining the compact, recognizing that it could reduce their own state's leverage in close elections — suggesting the policy's risks are real even to its natural political allies.
Left counters
Individual state officials acting in narrow self-interest doesn't undermine the broader democratic legitimacy of the reform; nearly two decades of deliberate, transparent legislative action across many states shows this is a considered policy choice, not a reckless maneuver.
Challenge Questions
These questions target genuine internal contradictions — meant to provoke honest reflection.
Right asks Left
“If the legitimacy of this reform rests on respecting states' constitutional authority to direct their own electors, how do you square that with bypassing the amendment process that the Constitution specifically requires for changes of this magnitude?”
Left asks Right
“If the core objection is that the compact could let densely populated areas override smaller states' preferences, how is that different in principle from the current system, where a handful of swing states already override the preferences of the other 40?”
Outlier Report
Left Fringe
Some progressive activists and legal scholars (e.g., those aligned with FairVote) push for immediate implementation without concern for constitutional challenges, representing maybe 15-20% of the left who prioritize speed over caution.
Right Fringe
Figures like Mike Davis and some Federalist Society-aligned commentators frame this as an existential threat to the constitutional order or a 'coup,' representing a vocal 20-25% of the right that uses more apocalyptic language than mainstream GOP officials.
Noise Assessment
High noise ratio — this is a niche procedural/constitutional topic that generates intense engagement among political junkies and partisan media but limited salience among the broader public, many of whom are unfamiliar with the Interstate Compact mechanism itself.
Sources (10)
<p>Democrats' sweeping statehouse gains Tuesday have opened a path to effectively replacing the <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/11/04/electoral-college-how-it-works" target="_blank">Electoral College</a> with a <a href="https://www.axios.com/2019/03/16/15-states-dc-change-electoral-college-works" target="_blank">national popular vote</a> in time for the 2028 presidential election — without needing to amend the Constitution.</p><p><strong>Why it matters: </strong>The results could give Democrats the legislative power to fundamentally change how America picks its president, potentially ending the possibility of winning the White House while losing the national popular vote.</p><hr /><p><strong>Driving the news: </strong>Democrats have won control of the governorship and both legislative chambers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, enough to push an agreement called<strong> </strong>the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact beyond the 270-vote threshold required to take effect.</p><ul><li>The compact has been enacted by 18 states and Washington, D.C.<strong> </strong>since launching in 2006, representing 222 electoral votes so far.</li><li>The agreement only kicks in when participating states collectively control at least 270 electoral votes. The five new Democratic trifectas could bring the total to 283.</li></ul><p><strong>How it works: </strong>Americans don't directly elect the president. Instead, they actually cast ballots to choose electors, whose votes determine the winner every four years.</p><ul><li>Nearly every state awards all its electoral votes to the statewide winner. Maine and Nebraska also award electors based on congressional district results.</li><li>But the Constitution explicitly gives states power to appoint electors "in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct."</li><li>Under the compact, participating states would instead award their electoral votes to the national popular-vote winner once the agreement reaches 270 electoral votes.</li></ul><p><strong>Yes, but:</strong> The five states would still need to enact the compact, and it's not clear if it will be a priority for the new Democratic states.</p><ul><li>The Electoral College would formally remain in place, and the compact could face constitutional challenges, including over whether congressional approval is required.</li><li>Michigan failed to enact it during its previous Democratic trifecta from 2023 to 2024, and Nevada's then-Democratic governor vetoed the compact in 2019, warning it could diminish his state's influence over presidential elections.</li><li>Notre Dame law professor Derek Muller has <a href="https://electionlawblog.org/2023/supreme-courts-developing-compact-clause-jurisprudence-may-affect-national-popular-vote/" target="_blank">argued</a> that the compact would be unconstitutional without congressional approval, which he contends is required under the Constitution's Compact Clause.</li></ul><p><strong>What to watch: </strong>Whether and how legislators in the new trifecta states move forward.</p><ul><li>Lawmakers in all five states have previously introduced legislation to join the compact.</li></ul>
A string of Democratic victories in state legislatures has put Electoral College reform in the spotlight ahead of 2028.
Democrats have won unified control of enough swing states — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan — to sidestep the Electoral College. Will they back the effort?
The Constitution supplies legitimate ways to change those rules via the constitutional amendment process and nearly every item on the Democrat agenda is designed to bypass it.
Does England's long-time first-choice goalkeeper Jordan Pickford finally face serious competition for his place, asks chief football writer Phil McNulty.
Democrats have won unified control of enough swing states — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan — to sidestep the Electoral College. Will they back the effort?
Presidential hopefuls are already working the phones to build relationships with the new slate of Democratic figures in key early states.
Dems picked up more than 500 seats (and counting) and flipped at least 12 legislative chambers.
<p>The post <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/ruidoso-new-mexico-floods-fire">I Was There to Document the Aftermath of Deadly Flooding. Then, It Started Raining.</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.propublica.org">ProPublica</a>.</p>